West Bengal Election 2021: As several as 114 seats out of 294 will be going to polls in the last 3 phases in West Bengal. While 43 assembly constituencies are going to polls on April 22, 36 assembly constituencies on April 26 and 35 assembly constituencies on April 29. Of these 114 seats, the TMC had won about 60 seats in the preceding election as most of these regions have been dominated by the TMC considering the fact that 2011. Notably, the TMC had won 28 of these seats in 2011 and had enhanced its tally to 32 in the 2016 assembly polls.
While the Congress-Left alliance had won 11 of these constituencies in 2016, the actual fight this time is amongst the BJP and the TMC. If the outcomes of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections are taken into consideration, the saffron party has taken a lead in about 24 assembly segments.
In the seventh phase polls, 36 seats will go to the polls on April 26 in the seventh phase. The TMC had won 14 of these constituencies in 2016 and 17 seats in 2011. The CPI-M led alliance had won 22 seats. The BJP had equalled the TMC figure in the 2019 polls by taking a lead in 16 constituencies.
In the eighth phase, 35 constituencies will go to the polls. The TMC had won 14 of these in 2011 and had enhanced its tally to 17 in 2016. The Congress-Left alliance had won 16 of these seats with the Congress winning 13 seats alone in the 2016 polls. The BJP had won just one but it has been focussing on the places exactly where it could not execute effectively and had managed to safe a lead in 11 constituencies in the 2019 polls. The TMC held leads in 19 of them and the Congress in 5 only.
Mamata Banerjee had won a huge 211 out of 294 seats in the 2016 polls, the TMC’s ideal functionality so far. Given the lead that the BJP got in the 2019 polls, the TMC demands to address anti-incumbency and discontentment on one hand and the Hindutva narrative that is rapid gaining foothold in the state. To counter these twin challenges, Mamata has propped up the problem of Bengali identity, one thing she making use of to flare up the insider vs outsider feelings. She initial developed the outsider debate and then came up with the ‘bangla nijer meyeke chai’ slogan which signifies Bengal desires its daughter. However, she got the taste of her personal medicine in Nandigram exactly where her protegee turned rival termed Banerjee an outsider to the constituency.
With a renewed political equation taking shape in the area, if the TMC fails to place up a united show, the division of votes is most likely to advantage the saffron party. The BJP has not only bagged a very good chunk of leaders from the TMC but has been predicted to emerge as the second-biggest party in the state. With the division of votes taking spot mainly on the religious and caste lines, the TMC demands to locate a way to retain its vote share intact.
If reports and surveys are to be believed, this time the state has a significant quantity of floating voters who are/had been indecisive about whom to vote this time. The BJP and the TMC have indulged in a perception war to catch this chunk of voters. While Mamata Banerjee has maintained that it is going to win more than 220 seats this time, its strategist Prashant Kishor has stated that the saffron party will not attain a 3-digit figure. For the BJP, Union Home Minister Amit Shah has claimed that the BJP is simply winning 200 seats, Prime Minister Narendra Modi went a step ahead declaring that the BJP has taken a decisive lead and asked the state government officials to prepare a list of beneficiaries who will be getting several positive aspects beneath central government schemes when the BJP types a government in the state.
A higher voter turnout in the last 5 phases have created the battle fascinating and is becoming observed benefitting the saffron party. Thus, it becomes critical for the TMC to boost its tally in the last 3 phases. If the TMC’s tally does not increase, then a fall is imminent – a fall of 10-year-old TMC’s rule, a fall of a feisty leader who overthrew the 34-year-old CPI-M rule. For BJP, it will be a possibility to bring ‘Asol Poribortan’ that it has been raking up in each rally.