West Bengal Election 2021: In Bengal’s quick-altering political landscape, 2019 has turn out to be a benchmark. Calculations are getting based on the year the BJP marked its arrival in Bengal and shocked quite a few by winning 18 of the 42 Lok Sabha seats in the state. If disaggregated, the BJP was major in 121 assembly seats. So if it have been to win this election, the saffron party will have to hold on to what it had got in 2019. Its finest overall performance was in North Bengal, exactly where it won 7 of 8 Lok Sabha seats. This area — largely dominated by tribals and other ethnic groups — has 54 assembly segments, Alipurduar (5), Cooch Behar (9), Jalpaiguri (7), Darjeeling (6), North Dinajpur (9), South Dinajpur (6) and Malda (12). Going by Lok Sabha numbers, the BJP was major in 35 of 54 seats in North Bengal.
The BJP will have to hold fort right here to win the battle of Bengal. On that count, the BJP has lost one sherpa exactly where the Gurkha concern is nonetheless alive and kicking in North Bengal. Bimal Gurung — the man who has been spearheading the Gorkha movement and helped the BJP win the area in the final election — is now with Mamata. Gurung can win at least 3 seats — Darjeeling, Kalimpong and Kurseong — for Mamata, who has left these constituencies for the Gorkha Janmukti Morcha (GJM). The GJM won these seats in 2011 and 2016.
Besides, the GJM has help in a dozen of other assembly segments. If the BJP loses right here, the road to Nabanna would either lead to nowhere or back to New Delhi, at least for some prime leaders camping in Bengal. But Sambit Pal, author of ‘The Bengal Conundrum: The Rise of the BJP and the Future of the TMC’, thinks that the benefits in this area will not noticed any drastic alter. He says 2019 Lok Sabha elections benefits show that North Bengal has tilted towards the BJP. And “the TMC has not done much (in North Bengal) to tell you for sure that they are going to recover the lost ground in 2021. Rather they (TMC) have tried to do something in West Midnapore and Jhargram in terms of organisation to recover the lost votes with the help of Prashant Kishor’s team”.
He additional says the ruling party is not sturdy right here in North Bengal. “TMC is mainly a South-Bengal party. It doesn’t have an organic base in North Bengal. Here, it has been riding primarily on the leaders from the Congress and Left. Since 2019, Mamata has tried to woo the tea garden workers, tribals, Rajbangshis through various welfare schemes and development boards. Still, it seems that voting in this region is expected to be in line with what had happened in the Lok Sabha polls.”
“The TMC may recover a few seats, but voting would be on similar lines. But firing in Sitalkuchi — it will have to be seen how it affects the electorate further. The booth where the firing happened was a minority-dominated, ratios could be 60:40 or 70:30. And this issue is being used by both TMC and BJP for their own political gains,” the author says.
Following firing in Cooch Behar, each sides have been trading charges against each and every other – BJP says Mamata instigated females to gherao central forces when Mamata alleges that the forces have been acting on directions of Modi and Shah. These charges and counter-charges are major to a additional polarisation of votes that was currently polarised.
In 2016, the TMC had won 25 of 54 assembly seats in North Bengal. But by 2019, the BJP had created inroads into the area vital to its win in Bengal. If we take out the Gorkha aspect out, there would nonetheless be sufficient seats of which the BJP can corner 30. Sambit says Gurung has a sway in 3 hilly seats, but in other seats in the foothills, he can have some influence but can not authoritatively alter the benefits.
Tea workers are amongst the dominant constituents in North Bengal. Home Minister Amit Shah has promised to enhance every day wages for tea workers to Rs 350. But considering the fact that that very same guarantee was not fulfilled in Assam may possibly raise doubts amongst voters’ minds. Then there are Ranbangshis and Namasudras — each with each other constitute more than 36 per cent population. Both BJP and TMC are vying for their votes, but the saffron party has a far better opportunity of gaining their help. Matuas are the most significant group in Namasudras. The BJP has been saying that it will give citizenship to refugees below CAA.
On which way the tribals are moving, Pal says there are various castes and communities. “Mamata tried to address them separately. She had formed various development boards, which she had done before 2019. They (TMC) had divided the whole population that way. Both of them are trying to reach out to Rajbangshis like promising a separate battalion for the Rajbangshis in West Bengal police.” But, so far, “it seems” they are going with the BJP. Overall, North Bengal appears protected for the BJP.