By Dr Suresh Singh
With India witnessing more than 20,000 new instances per day consecutively for 16 days because 11/3/2021 and more than 40,000 per day for seven days because 20/3/2021(> 50,000 on March 25&26th), it is time to declare total lockdown in chosen cities, towns and localities. These hot-spots consist of Pune, Thane, Mumbai, components of Punjab, Kerala, and Madhya Pradesh and so forth. exactly where key spikes of Covid-19 are observed.
Another disturbing trend is the raise in new variants of all types. According to reports, 36 UK, 34 South African and 1 Brazilian variant have been identified as on 24/3/2021. These are the worrying scenes requiring minute monitoring.
India’s 1st lockdown was on March 25th final year with about 525 total instances. I have maintained from the incredibly starting that total lockdown of the nation is not the option and expressed so specially against subsequent extensions. I have advocated total shielding of Delhi, Maharashtra and Kerala borders as early as 22/03/2020 with mapping of red spots and 2 week location quarantine straight away.
Learn from previous errors:
The nation ought to now discover from previous errors and take powerful remedial measures and ought to not repeat previous errors. I, along with lots of public wellness medical doctors, are nonetheless not reconciled to property isolation and therapy exactly where facilities are not obtainable-e.g. Dharavi with 10 lakhs population, crowded city/town slums and so forth. One most critical issue for the enormous spread of corona, in spite of nation-wide lockdown, was attributable to this. Hope authorities would not repeat such errors.
Though the government is nonetheless not positive of the principal lead to of current raise of Corona instances in chosen cities, and regions, medical doctors like us are worried by the present rising trend of the mad virus.
Worrying trends:
Seven worrying states-Maharashtra, Kerala, Punjab, Karnataka, J&K, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh – accounting 89% new instances in 1 day (23/3/21) ii) of 10 districts with highest active instances-9 are from Maharashtra, other one from Karnataka iii) a total of 206 double mutant variant (E484Q+L452R) have been detected in Maharashtra by means of the centre maintains no direct hyperlink with the ongoing surge in the state. iv) for the 1st time in final 4 months, the nation reported more than 50,000 fresh instances
b) State-Wise :i) Maharashtra (24/3/21) had the highest 1 day hike of 31,855 new instances because the pandemic started. Last peak was on September 11, final year with 24,886 instances. Mumbai accounts for 5,185 new instances in a single day with a total of 3,74,611. Pune had 1 day new instances of 6,741, out of this -3,509 are in Pune Municipal Corporation location.
ii) Punjab-becoming the 2nd highest state with Covid case reporting 2,613 new infections. According to Chief Minister Amarinder Singh, 81 per cent of samples are +ve for UK variants. iii) Kerala-on March 25th, reported 1,989 new instances accounting for an active caseload of 24,380. It had the highest new case of 4,070 on March 22nd with 3 districts contributing more. iv) Gujarat reported the highest single day rise of 1,961 new instances because the pandemic. The active instances now stand at 9,372. These are a couple of examples.
In-active, timid and as well significantly watchful Covid Task Force response:
Though the Central Covid Task force has performed lots of fantastic jobs and has lots of credits to its name, nevertheless, typically it is identified to be ‘In-active, timid and too much watchful’ in the time of need to have. When there is insufficient information, one can’t wait for it forever. We have to apply popular sense and take bold choices based on what ever is obtainable. Present trends demand that India ought to have restricted lockdown in areas exactly where Covid surges are eminent. We ought to not wait for a 2nd wave in truth, we ought to avoid it. We have to go for the jugular in the starting prior to the mad virus overtakes us.
Area lockdown with ideas: One day/two day lockdown, evening time curfew, restricted movements and so forth. enforced in lots of states are not the option. It will have only a marginal impact on stopping the spread.
Hence, enforce – a) total lockdown in impacted red spots –cities, towns and other regions. As a thumb rule, any locality with one hundred and above new instances may well be declared as a quarantine zone. As it can not be situated in cities, complete cities/towns may well be quarantined with total lockdown.
b) In lockdown period, enforce simple principle of infectious illness handle i.e. i) case detection by home to home surveys and by testing of all households ii) case holding by proper therapy- property isolation and therapy for the poor is to be avoided at any price. There is no point in undertaking so when 4/5 persons keep in a space with no separate bathrooms. They need to have to be treated at the so-known as Quarantine centres/properties and so forth. This can and ought to, nevertheless, be implemented for the economical and properly to-do households exactly where facilities are obtainable. And of course, therapy of extreme instances at hospitals. iii) wellness education – enforce preventive elements i.e use of mask, 6’ physical distance and frequent hand wash as minimum. Now is time to enforce it with heavy fine as folks of all categories-politicians and popular males are getting a casual attitude to it and neglecting the similar.
c) 14 day quarantine be enforced strictly in Q Zones, with fines anytime required.
d) All Testing now to be performed by RT-PCR kits.
e) Strict testing and quarantine rule enforcement at all airports-international and domestics. Present strict guidelines at international airports are not sufficient. Minimum charge may well be applied to the passengers for the tests.
It is time for Prime Minister Narendra Modi to give strict guidelines to the government’s COVID Task Force as per the ideas created above in an work to avoid the 2nd wave of Corona spread.
(The author is former Director, Health, Manipur, a public Health Specialist and WHO Fellow (Holland & UK). Email: [email protected] Views expressed are individual and do not reflect the official position or policy of TheSpuzz Online.)