By Amb Anil Trigunayat
After 9/11, US rushed into Afghanistan exactly where Kings feared to tread. It was for practically nothing that it is infamously recognized as the “Grave Yard of the Kings and Empires”. Russians met their Waterloo, and the Americans are tasting the inherent futility of their misadventure and Afghanistan is tuning into their Vietnam. They have been wanting an early exit for at least by means of the final two Administrations. Trump had expedited the progress by getting into a bilateral deal with the Taliban whom it declared a ‘Pariah” but decided to bed with them in concert with Pakistan and Qatar. Afterall Taliban was the creation of US, Pakistan and Saudi assistance to defeat the Soviets in 1980s in Afghanistan. The project became untenable and only custodian remained the deep state in Pakistan and Us continued to pander and Doha Agreement of last February was expected to be the facilitator for a somewhat face-saving exit from an unwinnable theatre of war that the history has consigned to. Several US allies have already retracted in the face of adversity. The Biden Administration is also following suit but is not sure of the way the Taliban would conduct itself and honour the terms it had agreed to in Doha and thereafter. A violent peace prevails. The US wishes to ensure some semblance of stability before it finally calls it quits. Quit it will! May 1, 2021 is set to be the date.
A controversy has arisen about a letter by Secretary of State Anthony Blinken to President Ashraf Ghani which asks the UN to convene a meeting of representatives from Afghanistan, Pakistan, Russian China , Iran, US and India that could be hosted by Turkey to develop a unified approach. A new “Istanbul process” could ensue. The Talks from bilateral to trilateral move to the multilateral domain under the aegis of the UN. All real stakeholders are expected to be part of the Club that might take over greater responsibilities post US exit. It may stabilise the move forward as Washington urges Taliban and current establishment to strive for a more representative government.
Russians have been involved in Afghanistan for decades now trying to redeem their influence and even provided assistance and transit to US troops and equipment in good times. Even if they wished US not to have a permanent base in Afghanistan, they would prefer it not to completely disengage and leave for the drug trafficking and other security issues that have a direct impact on Moscow’s calculations. China has quietly constructed its financial base in Afghanistan and considers it crucial even for its CPEC and performs in tandem with Pakistan to have closer access to Taliban who in either case will have to be reckoned with in due course. As such China does not care which government or religious dispensation governs the intractable State.
Iran is an crucial neighbour of Afghanistan and the US has remained in touch with their Iranian interlocutors. US Special envoy Khalilzad speaking at an Indian Think Tank confirmed that Iranian help is valuable and important in attaining stability in Afghanistan. Neighbours are typically vulnerable when the borders are rife with terrorism or instability. Iran is no exception apart from its historical people today to people today connect. Inclusion of Iran hence is crucial in the Afghan as effectively as broader US-Iran context. It offers Iran a comforting sense of significance as a constructive actor. As such President Biden is attempting to revive the JCPOA and has displayed numerous CBMs (Confidence Building measures which includes release of blocked funds in Iraq and humanitarian relief measures).
Media is rife with the inclusion of India by the US and exclusion of it by Russia in discovering a remedy in Afghanistan specially in a cohort with Pakistan that claims a genuine deal with more than Taliban. Russians have denied that. Pakistan is naturally opposed to India gaining any traction. It was in truth for the initial time that two former Indian Ambassadors to Pakistan and Afghanistan attended Talks in Moscow in an unofficial capacity with a listening short. Unless one attributes a literal which means to such demarches there is more than meets the eye anytime one is present at the international negotiations. Indian Ambassador to Qatar represented at the signing of the Doha Agreement although Indian Foreign Secretary was in Kabul to assure the Afghan Government that it stood by the people today of Afghanistan.Of course, India did not think in “Good Taliban and Bad Taliban” and had no overt engagement with them, but it believes in an Afghan-led and Afghan-owned method exactly where specific red lines require not be crossed. Taliban are also aspect of Afghanistan. Of late they have shown understanding of India’s position be it on J&K or Abrogation of Art 370. Arguably, a controversy is produced due to the fact it is just sensational.
Having a historical and civilizational connect India has been steadfast in its assistance to Afghan people today specially in infrastructural improvement, education,scholarships, coaching and capacity developing across the spectrum. People to People Relations and Cultural connect stay robust. Proverbial “Kabuliwallah” and Bollywood films as effectively as the sturdy image of the Pathan remained engraved in the Indian psyche as a gold normal of honesty. Across Afghanistan, India is in all probability the only nation that evokes respect, admiration, and affection of the Afghan people today as per polls and surveys. India’s wheat to vaccine diplomacy has additional strengthened the caring bonds of brotherhood and friendship.
India is the biggest non-western donor and practically all projects are grant based. So far India has supplied more than $ 3bn in help. Making use of the fresh US$ 1 billion improvement help announced by India and Afghanistan launched a ‘New Development Partnerships To identify priorities and projects where Afghanistan needed India’s help. India agreed to implement crucial new projects such as the Shahtoot Dam and drinking water project for Kabul that would also facilitate irrigation water provide for Charikar City road connectivity to Band-e-Amir in Bamyan Province that would market tourism low-expense housing for returning Afghan refugees in Nangarhar Province to help in their resettlement a gypsum board manufacturing plant in Kabul to market worth-added regional business improvement and import substitution a polyclinic in Mazar-e-Sharif amongst other people. In addition, India also committed to take up added 116 High Impact Community Development Projects in 34 provinces of Afghanistan. These projects will be in regions of education, wellness, agriculture, irrigation, drinking water, renewable power, flood handle, micro-hydropower, sports and administrative infrastructure. India also announced that ongoing help programmes for education, capacity developing, expertise and human resource improvement of Afghanistan, would continue for a additional period of 5 years from 2017 to 2022. A signing ceremony of the Memorandum of Understanding [MoU] for the building of the Lalandar [Shahtoot] Dam in Afghanistan took spot practically on 9 February 2021. This is the second significant dam becoming constructed by India in Afghanistan, just after the India- Afghanistan Friendship Dam [Salma Dam], which was inaugurated by the Prime Minister and the President in June 2016. As a aspect of our Development Cooperation with Afghanistan, India has completed more than 400 projects covering all 34 provinces of Afghanistan which includes the Parliament developing-citadel of democracy.
In 2016 PM Modi visited Kabul twice in much less than 4 months. The Prime Minister, in his remarks, highlighted the civilisational connection among India and Afghanistan and gave an assurance of India’s continued assistance for a peaceful, united, steady, prosperous, and inclusive Afghanistan. India has invested heavily in peace and improvement in Afghanistan. We strongly think that the gains of the final two decades ought to be preserved and the interests of minorities, girls and vulnerable sections ought to be ensured.
From the US viewpoint, India-its extensive international strategic collaborator, which is at present a non-permanent member of the UNSC and heavily invested in Afghanistan, is a logical companion whose issues ought to be taken on board. Zalmay Khalilzad once again briefed Indian External Affairs Minister lately on their proposal. As Biden Administration is organizing to take the UN route to the Afghan concern, India’s constant preference for Afghan-led, Afghan-owned, broad-based, and inclusive method of peace and reconciliation by advocating the require for a sustained and lengthy-term commitment to Afghanistan by the international neighborhood could pave the way for peace and transition in a proud but embattled neighbour of India.
(The author is Former Ambassador to the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, Libya and Malta. He can be reached at [email protected]. Twitter: @aniltrigunayat. Views expressed are individual and do not reflect the official position or policy of the TheSpuzz Online.)