With West Bengal polls heading towards culmination, political strategists may well be involved in discovering the correct political math behind the higher voter turnout which the BJP has claimed to be benefitting. In Bengal, there are 3,58,45,115 male voters and 3,40,45,313 female voters. The ladies voters constitute 48.71 per cent of the total 6,98,91,751 voters. Just like Bihar exactly where ladies voters have been playing a crucial function in finding Nitish Kumar back to energy, Mamata Banerjee has been banking on ladies and Muslim voters for her return as Chief Minister for the third straight term. Traditionally, a higher voter turnout has largely resulted in sitting CMs losing the chair.
There are a lot of seats such as in Kolkata, North 24 Parganas, South 24 Parganas, Hooghly and Howrah exactly where ladies voters have outnumbered guys. If we speak about 44 seats of Phase-IV only, there have been 11 constituencies exactly where ladies voters are more than their male counterparts. In six of these – Sonarpur Dakshin, Sonarpur Uttar, Jadavpur, Tollygunj, Behala Uttar and Behala Dakshin, the ladies voters have an edge more than the male. Of these 11 constituencies, the total quantity of female voters are 15,70,392 although that of the male is 15,66,161.
The story is not distinct in other constituencies exactly where the ladies voters are either almost at par with the guys or slightly decrease in quantity but play a decisive function. While the TMC has come out with ‘Bangla Nijer Meyeke Chai’ (Bengal desires its daughter) slogan to counter the BJP and money on its ‘outsider’ plank, the party admits it is up against a formidable force. The saffron party has promised a lot of measures such as cost-free transportation and reservation in government jobs to lure ladies voters. Notably, the SCs/STs voters, which have been voting dominantly for the BJP, also involve ladies.
The lack of jobs and industries have forced a lot of men and women, specifically guys, of Bengal to go to Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh in search of a livelihood. The BJP’s guarantee to bring MSMEs and industries to West Bengal is becoming noticed as a hope by ladies voters as the guys will not have to leave the state in search of employment.
Then there are Muslim voters who account for 27 per cent of the population. Traditionally, they had supported the Left. But just after 2011, they have largely been voting unitedly for the TMC. The BJP has accused the TMC of appeasement politics that was also accepted by the TMC’s poll strategist Prashant Kishor in a current Clubhouse discussion. According to reports, of the 211 seats that the TMC won in 2016, 98 seats went to the TMC largely since of the Muslim voters. This time, the TMC is facing a triangular contest in terms of the Muslim vote bank. The Congress is contesting the polls in alliance with the CPIM-M and Abbas Siddiqui-led ISF. The entry of debutant AIMIM led by Asaduddin Owaisi has forced Mamata Banerjee to situation a communal appeal to the minority to vote unitedly for the TMC. The Chief Minister is also conscious of the division of minority votes along religious lines amongst the ISF, AIMIM and the TMC. Even a 5 per cent swing in the Muslim vote bank along with a shift in women’s voting pattern may well substantially dent Banerjee’s dream of retaining energy in the state, in the end benefitting the BJP, which is stated to have polarised the election on the lines of Hindutva.
As the state votes for the remaining 4 phases in the next two weeks, all eyes are on the exit polls on April 29 and the counting day May 2.