After fighting every single other for 20 years, the U.S. and Taliban are abruptly obtaining their interests aligned against a prevalent enemy — but their personal bloody history stands in the way of eliminating the threat.
The blast at Kabul airport late Thursday, which killed 13 U.S. service members and at least 60 Afghans, showed the world the terrorism dangers emanating from Afghanistan as American troops prepare to leave next week. After the attack, President Joe Biden vowed to strike against the extremist group ISIS-K though explaining why the U.S. is cooperating with the Taliban on the evacuation.
It’s “in the interest of the Taliban that in fact ISIS-K does not metastasize beyond what it is,” Biden mentioned when asked why the U.S. depended on its longtime adversary to safe the perimeter of the airport. He added: “It’s not a matter of trust — it’s a matter of mutual self interest.”
Asked later if U.S.-Taliban cooperation would continue beyond the evacuation, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki mentioned “I don’t want to get ahead of where we are.”
The scenario is awkward for each the U.S. and the Taliban. Each side desires to stop Afghanistan from turning into a crucial staging ground for Islamic State fighters to plot international terrorist attacks, but they also obtain it politically unpalatable — if not not possible — to cooperate.
For the U.S., the Taliban’s remedy of ladies and political opponents has spurred calls for diplomatic isolation and monetary sanctions. Yet that only dangers weakening the Taliban and emboldening rival Islamic extremists, undermining Biden’s claim that the U.S. achieved its mission of rooting out terrorism in Afghanistan.
At the very same time, the Taliban face a dilemma: They want excellent relations with the international neighborhood to stabilize the nation, but cooperating with the U.S. to fight Islamic State could spur a backlash that prompts more rank-and-file members to join the more violent extremist group.
“The situation is tough for the Taliban — what will they tell their cadres who have lost lives to this cause of throwing out the U.S. invaders?” mentioned Kabir Taneja, author of “The ISIS Peril: The World’s Most Feared Terror Group and its Shadow on South Asia.”
“They want no U.S. presence in any of these places,” he added. “So in a sense, we are back to square one unless Biden lets this go. Whatever happens now in Afghanistan will have wider international consequences.”
Islamic State Khorasan, a nearby franchise of the group in Iraq and Syria, was formed largely by defectors from the Taliban and Tehrik-e-Taliban, a U.S.-designated terrorist group committed to overthrowing Pakistan’s government. While ISIS-K was almost wiped out by each U.S. and Taliban strikes, the group is estimated to have about 2,000 fighters.
ISIS-K has been accountable for some of Afghanistan’s most lethal attacks in current years, such as targeting schoolgirls, hospitals and even a maternity ward in Kabul, killing newly born babies and pregnant ladies.
‘Routed and Dispersed’
Biden on Thursday vowed to strike the assets, leadership and facilities of ISIS-K terrorists “at the place we choose, and the moment of our choosing.” He spoke about an “over-the-horizon” capability to fight terrorism that did not call for a U.S. troop presence in Afghanistan.
Still, American good results in undertaking that hinges largely on “how far away the horizon is” as properly as the strength of nearby partners, according to William Wechsler, a former deputy assistant secretary of defense for unique operations and combating terrorism.
“In this case in Afghanistan our local partners have just been routed and dispersed,” Wechsler, now the director of Middle East applications at the Atlantic Council, told Bloomberg Television. “The longer term threat is quite troubling.”
Without a presence in landlocked Afghanistan, it really is unclear specifically how the U.S. would conduct strikes against terrorists. In May, the Wall Street Journal reported that Biden administration officials had been searching to base forces and gear in Central Asia and the Middle East, specifically as Pakistan — the important staging ground for the 2001 invasion — is now off limits.
Pakistan, China
The U.S. has a lengthy history of conducting drone strikes against terrorists in Pakistan, a touchy topic that previously spurred protests in the nation even even though more than 70,000 Pakistanis had been killed in attacks more than the previous handful of decades. Prime Minister Imran Khan this week cited the drone strikes “by our own allies” in explaining why he “won’t let our country to be used by the outsiders.”
While China also has an interest in stopping Afghanistan from becoming a hotbed of terrorism, leaders in Beijing have sided with close buddy Pakistan in blocking the United Nations Security Council from listing groups targeting India as terrorists. That tactic has been risky: Chinese interests have been targeted by bombs in Pakistan, exactly where it is financing more than $60 billion infrastructure and power projects.
“China is perfectly okay with a level of instability in its other client, Pakistan,” mentioned C. Christine Fair, a Georgetown University professor who has written several books on South Asia and terrorism. “What China wants is that none of these Islamist terrorists turn their guns on China.”
‘There’s Nothing the Americans Can Do’
The Taliban’s swift victory more than the U.S.-backed Afghan army also served as a recruiting chance for ISIS-K, specifically as the lack of a central government offers space for terrorists to regroup.
Moreover, intelligence-sharing involving the former Afghan government and other nations is now halted at a time when numerous jailed terrorists have been set no cost.
ISIS-K sees Afghanistan as a “big opportunity space” specifically as the Taliban demonstrate they do not however have handle of the nation, mentioned Greg Barton, chair in international Islamic politics at Deakin University in Australia.
“There’s nothing the Afghan Taliban can easily do about this,” Barton told Bloomberg Television. “And despite what President Biden says, there’s nothing the Americans can do.”