By Sameet Chavan
Wednesday’s spectacular recovery was followed by a pleasant begin on Thursday in line with the international peers. During the remaining portion of the session, we witnessed consolidation in a slender variety in essential indices. During the final hour, Nifty made an try to go beyond 15800 but due to lack of help from heavyweight constituents, Nifty concluded the session as effectively as the July series tad beneath the 15800 mark.
This has been one of the most boring series for our marketplace and it can quickly be seen if we examine the vis-a-vis overall performance. In truth, if we take a glance at the intra-month movement as effectively, we can see Nifty trapped in a slender variety of 500 points. Now following the last two days of expiry, Nifty is just about at the midpoint of the variety and therefore, it is advisable not to take any directional view right here. With a broader view, the trend remains sideways to positive till the time we do not slide beneath the important help of 15450. At the greater variety of 15900 – 15950, one requirements to keep light as we have witnessed surprising down move on many occasions following reaching this zone. So regardless of whether we will attain the millstone of 16000 and beyond in the August series or not, only time will inform us.
For the coming sessions, 15800 – 15850 would be seen as quick hurdles whereas on the reduce side, 15700 followed by 15600 are the levels to watch out for. Thursday did not look like a month-to-month expiry session as there was no sign of volatility seen whatsoever. But the true show-stealer was the Metal space as we saw vibrant moves in just about all counters from this universe.
In the F&O space, we hardly saw any meaningful open interest activity in each the indices. Rollover in NIFTY and Bank Nifty stands at 82.75% and 81.20% respectively, which seems to be superior if we think about the 3-month typical but if when we examine the series or series OI alter, there is no main addition or reduction in open interest. As far as FIIs activities are concerned, they preferred exiting some of their longs and rolling more than a handful of bearish bets in index futures. This resulted in index futures ‘Long Short Ratio’ declining to 69% from 82% seen in the course of the begin of the series. In the money segment, they continued their promoting streak for the fourth consecutive month, promoting to the tune of Rs 19,345 crores to date in July. Though on the face of it rollovers may well look superior but if we also aspect in other information points, it does not give any clear indication. Hence, till we do not see any sustainable move beyond the current variety, traders are advised to keep light in the index and focusing on person themes which have been performing superior of late.
(Sameet Chavan is the Chief Analyst-Technical and Derivatives at Angel Broking. Views expressed are the author’s personal. Please seek the advice of your economic advisor prior to investing.)