By Lt Gen PG Kamath,
China has got a new commander for the Western Theatre Command. Gen Zhang Xudong is new to the theatre and of course is finding in to image. He has to prove himself to the Chairman of Central Military Commission, who was not satisfied with the prior incumbent for not becoming in a position to rein in India in time, and for enabling the standoff to spill more than to winter and beyond. The stalemate is a setback to Xi. Gen Zhang has to restore his prestige.
Politically, China desires to subdue India at the earliest and force it to accept the Chinese version of the 1959 LAC. Militarily, China desires to intimidate India by Military Means by use of force or the threat of use of force to yield to the Chinese demand on LAC.
The Chinese Military Objectives on India-China Frontier would be to mobilise his offensive forces in Tibet, opposite Arunachal and Ladakh Sectors. In each these sectors, they have disputed locations and capture of locations in these sectors would have a particular degree of legitimacy to hold on to them. This is in tune with his present doctrine of ‘Legal Warfare’.
In case China limits its confrontation to only Ladakh Front then his restricted Military Objectives could be as beneath: –
Firstly: Hold on to Depsang Plain in strength and make it a fait accompli to the Indians. China also perceives Depsang as its strategic vulnerability. It is the shortest and the easiest strategy to interdict his strategic Tibet- Xinjiang Highway (GH-219). Such action will thwart Indian plans to restore the status quo ante at Depsang.
Secondly: To preserve the Indians at Finger 3 and assure the territories Finger 4 and North of it remains beneath Chinese occupation. Both India and China could swoop on the greater heights of the Fingers which emanate from Chang Chen Mo Ridge. Whoever does it early would dominate the North Bank of Pangong Tso. The logistics nightmare in sustaining the troops at these heights really should be planned.
Thirdly: Ensure Indians withdraw from the Heights on Kailash Range, South of Pangong Tso. Once India withdraws, PLA would occupy the very same just ahead of the onset of winters in Oct/Nov 2021 and thereby altering the LAC permanently to its benefit. Under no situations really should India withdraw from the Kailash Range.
Gen Zhang would be challenging-pressed to obtain the 3 restricted military objectives on the Ladakh Front. At this time the Indian Foreign Ministry officials came to his rescue by agreeing at the meeting on 18 Dec 2020 that the disengagement on the Ladakh Front would be restricted only to friction points. Whose notion it was to stick to friction points for disengagement? I had only believed that it was a terminology in Physics? The whole front is armed to the teeth and these gullible guys have gone and agreed to the notion of ‘Friction Points’ which does not make any sense. Have the officials of MEA surrendered our national interests? The next meeting of the Corps Commanders as and when it requires location do not you really feel that the Indian General would be severely restricted by the limitation imposed by the MEA for disengaging only from the friction points?
India really should also not be imprisoned in the notion of ‘Bilateralism’ vis-à-vis China. We are attempting to apply the very same template on China as we do to Pakistan. India and Pakistan are bound by the Shimla Agreement of 1972 for sorting our border disputes bilaterally. It tends to make sense to deal with Pakistan bilaterally. We are pushing the very same policy forward for comfort and delight of China.
China forced Tibet to sign the ’17 Point Agreement’ with Chinese troops poised for coercion in Ladakh. Again, although annexing the South China Sea China occupied islands and EEZ of the Philippines, Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia. It desires to have bilateral meetings with every single of the nations individually so that it can browbeat and impose its will on them individually.
Just final week, the Chinese Ambassador to India, Sun Weidong, was asking the US not meddle in the Sino-Indian dispute. Sadly, our foreign ministry continues to harp on the bilateral frame in negotiations with China. Naked aggression is becoming covered up by our Foreign Ministry, exactly where we did not even help Mike Pompeo in the Quad Meeting of the Foreign Ministers when he was expressing concern at China’s expansionism in the Himalayas.
We really should have no decision but to take on China Militarily. However, we really should not really feel shy to name and shame China diplomatically. We, for some cause do not want to name China and get mired in innuendoes and oblique imputation. Chinese aggression can not be thought of bilateral. It disrupts the globe peace as each are nuclear powers. We really should not hesitate to go over with the USA, UK, Quad, Middle East, South-East Asia and EU and expose China.
Xi getting crowned himself as emperor for life has to prove to the Politburo his credentials. Any indicators of affliction would straight effect his image as the ‘Core Leader’. He would hence instruct Gen Zhang to subdue India earliest by use of minimum required force. At the very same time, it is unlikely that he would go on a important offensive? A restricted offensive possibly?
Notwithstanding we really should not program on a premise that China will not go on the offensive when the snow melts. The mutual de-induction of 10,000 troops from depth, locations really should not make us complacent. It could be just a ploy? We really should be in a position to monitor all his troop movements and war waging sources. The current realignment of Strike Corps to the Sino-Indian Borders is brilliant. Gen Zhang has a hard activity at hand. To prove himself we really should anticipate some indiscretions from him. We really should be prepared to exploit them and not permit him to extricate from the LAC without the need of losing face.
Lastly for heaven’s sake any one listening to me: China has a single Western Theatre Command searching just after the whole Sino-Indian Frontier. We have 3 Army Commands and a quantity of Air Commands searching at the very same front. If that was not adequate, we have the ‘Indo Tibetan Border Police’ that operates straight beneath the MHA. So, we also have two ministries, Defence and Home accountable. We have lost out on our patrolling access into Depsang which was patrolled by ITBP. Now, we want to fight a war with China with two ministries handling the front can you think it? Our ministerial battles are more intense we can feel of China later, as we are not prepared to place ITBP beneath the command of the Army. Almighty please save us from ourselves!
(Disclaimer: The author is an Indian Army Veteran. Views expressed are private and do not necessarily reflect the official position or policy of TheSpuzz Online.)