Kerala Assembly Elections 2021: Of the 5 states going to polls in more than a month, the Congress has the very best likelihood of winning at least one on its personal and 3 with allies. Even as component of an alliance, the Congress is a dominant force in Assam and Kerala. While surveys predict an edge for BJP in Assam and the incumbent Left government in Kerala, Rahul Gandhi has his very best likelihood to provide in the coastal state by defeating the Left-led LDF headed by Pinarayi Vijayan. Despite predictions to the contrary, the Congress is incredibly a lot in the game and Gandhi can turn the tide if he manages to do what he did in 2019.
Rahul’s selection to contest from Wayanad in the Lok Sabha polls was a strategic move that could bear fruit in this assembly election. When Gandhi left his classic family members bastion Amethi to contest from Wayanad, a lot of stated that it was a effectively believed-out move to consolidate Congress presence in down south. That evaluation may perhaps not be off the mark. A current survey suggests Rahul Gandhi is hugely preferred in Tamil Nadu and Kerala. He is the preferred decision for prime minister for 43 per cent folks in Tamil Nadu and 58 per cent folks in Kerala.
In Lok Sabha polls held in 2019, the Congress-led UDF swept the state by winning 19 of 20 parliamentary seats. The Congress alone got 15 seats, highest for the party from any single state — its total tally in parliament is 52. In this poll, the grand old party got 37.46 per cent votes though the Left got practically 26 per cent. Rahul Gandhi himself had won from Wayand by more than 4.30 lakh votes, cornering practically 65 per cent votes. In Kerala, the Congress has virtually every thing necessary to win an election — from a face who could be the chief minister to minority votes to absence of the BJP. The state has about 45 per cent minority votes, adequate to tilt the balance if they vote in blocks.
Kerala is one state exactly where the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has struggled to expand its footprint, and that leaves the ground open for the Congress to even capitalise on Hindu centric problems like Sabarimala. Even the Left leaders now really feel that the Sabarimala incident could have been handled greater and girls ought to not have been permitted inside the temple. The Congress right here did play its component by attractive to the chief minister to move with caution and keep the age-old tradition. On this, the people’s sentiments are with the Congress but how a lot of it converts into votes truly depends on how the party crafts its political messaging.
The other concern that the Congress can take up against the ruling dispensation is its alleged involvement in the gold smuggling scandal in which the trail leads all the way up to the chief minister’s workplace. Vijayan’s private secretary M Sivasankar’s alleged involvement tends to make this a match case for any party to place the chief minister on the backfoot.
Rahul Gandhi has been producing frequent visits to Kerala being aware of totally effectively that his party can wrest energy from the Left. But there are contradictions that may possibly come in his way. The Congress is fighting the Left in Kerala but is in alliance with the identical party in Bengal. This may possibly not convince the fence-sitters whose minds may perhaps be boggled at the level of duality displayed in complete public glare, leaving even the pretence of commitment to an ideology in politics. This also does not go down effectively with these who like to eliminate the incumbent and spot their bid on the winning side. This aside, the Congress is also facing spectre of factionalism in the state unit, and just days ago a incredibly senior leader Computer Chacko brought it into the open and resigned from the party saying it was a sinking ship.
An opinion poll by Times Now-C Voter predicts return of Pinarayi Vijayan with a comfy majority. The survey shows that the Left-led LDF can win 78-86 seats though Congress-led UDF can safe 52-60 of 140 seats with vote share largely the identical as it was in the final elections. In 2016, the LDF had won 91 though the Congress bagged 47. The Left has lost some ground due to the fact then but not adequate, as per the survey, that provides some hope to Congress. Last year’s regional body polls reinforced the Left’s command in the state. In this election, the ruling coalition won 514 of 941 gram panchayats though Congress-led UDF could win 321, 44 much less than what it had got in 2015. In block panchayats, the LDF emerged victorious in 108 though UDF in just 38. Both had been close in municipalities exactly where 43 went to LDF and 41 to UDF. The Left, nevertheless, won 5 corporations though Congress had to settle at just 1.
Despite these numbers stacked heavily against the Congress, Rahul Gandhi and his party leaders see a likelihood of winning back Kerala. But can Rahul provide is the query amongst the minds of his supporters and detractors (study G-23) who may perhaps be keenly watching the developments in the coastal state. A positive outcome in Kerala will be a feather in Rahul Gandhi’s hat which, apart from other issues, could make his return as Congress president honourable.