Nifty appears set to hit fresh all-time highs and cross the 16,000 levels in July series, whilst Bank Nifty could rally, if it crosses 36,000 levels, say analysts. In the series that ended yesterday, the Nifty 50 index posted gains for the third consecutive series, adding almost 3 per cent. While Bank Nifty underperformed in June series, settling with almost a per cent loss. Both the indices saw rollovers up to 85 per cent, which had been considerably greater than their 3-month typical. The higher percentage of rollovers in the June series as against the last 3 series typical rollovers indicates a positive sentiment in the stock markets, according to the analysts.
What do Nifty, Bank Nifty rollovers information say?
Usually, the reduce-than-typical rollover suggests uncertainty, whilst greater rollovers than the 3-month typical signal positive sentiment in the marketplace. “Nifty saw rollovers at 84.61 per cent as against the three-month average of 76 per cent and Bank Nifty witnessed rollovers at 83.88 per cent over the three-month average of 76.4 per cent,” Sameet Chavan, Chief Technical Analyst, Angel Broking, told TheSpuzz.
“We have seen a rollover of 89 per cent in the stock futures to the July series as against the last three series average rollover of 87 per cent,” Nandish Shah, Senior Derivative & Technical Analyst, HDFC Securities, told TheSpuzz Online. He also added that in terms of the quantity of shares, the July series has began with stock futures Open interest of 421 crore shares as against 437 crore shares, a level at which the June series had begun. It is 20 per cent reduce than the all-time higher Open Interest of 523 crore shares, which had been seen at the starting of the February 2018 series. “This lower OI, despite Nifty being at an all-time high, indicates lower leveraged positions which augur well for the markets,” Shah added.
Where will Nifty, Bank Nifty go in the July series?
Nifty July series outlook
Shah advised traders to stay bullish and use any corrections towards 15600-15700 levels to accumulate extended positions with cease loss of 15400. “On the higher side, we expect Nifty to cross 16000 levels and go beyond in the coming days,” he mentioned
Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA, Consulting Technical Analyst and founder, Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, sees an up move in the Nifty 50 index only if it moves previous the 15850-15900 zone and stays above it. If that takes place, then Nifty is most likely to attain 16,400-16500 levels.
In the July series, Nifty could lastly attain the new milestone of 16000 but the comprehensive runaway move is unlikely, mentioned Sameet Chavan. In in between markets may see some bouts of profit booking as effectively. “As far as levels are concerned, 16000-16200 are the upside levels to watch; whereas on the downside, the base seems to have shifted higher towards 15600-15450,” he mentioned.
Bank Nifty July series outlook
Nandish Shah mentioned the July series began with the greater Bank Nifty future OI of 19 lakh shares as against last series OI of 17.7 lakh shares. In percentage terms, Bank Nifty has seen a greater rollover of 84% as against last 3 series typical rollover of 78%. This greater rollover along with the more than thousand-point recovery from the low in the course of the last couple of days indicates a extended rollover to the July series,” Nandish Shah added. Bank Nifty, traders really should stay bullish and accumulate extended positions on decline towards 34500 levels with the cease loss at 33500 levels. On the greater side Bank Nifty could uncover an quick resistance in the vicinity of 36000-36500 levels. “We expect Bank Nifty to do well in the July series,” he mentioned.
Milan Vaishnav mentioned Bank Nifty will have to cross 36,000 levels for any sustainable up move. “So, until the Nifty moves past the 15850-15900 zone and the Bank Nifty surpasses 36,000 levels, all up moves will stay vulnerable to sell-offs at higher levels in the July series,” Milan Vaishnav mentioned.
(The suggestions in this story are by the respective investigation analysts and brokerage firms. TheSpuzz Online does not bear any duty for their investment tips. Capital markets investments are topic to guidelines and regulations. Please seek the advice of your investment advisor prior to investing.)