By Farooq Wani,
The existing ceasefire in between India and Pakistan nations shocked absolutely everyone in not only each these nations but the complete planet. That the two nuclear states have agreed to finish exchange of fire along the Line of Control (LoC) and International Border (IB) has come as a significant relief to these worried that the ongoing tension could escalate into an ugly circumstance.
Talks that had been held by the respective Director General Military Operations [DGMOs] of the two nations agreed to finish ceasefire violations on the LOC. This move will place an finish to civilian casualties and develop a more conducive atmosphere for peace talks and negotiations. The ceasefire was largely praised by each domestic and foreign audiences and was viewed as a positive step in the all round South Asian safety calculus, in particular when the area is experiencing tensions arising out of China’s muscle-flexing to establish its regional ascendency in the sub-continent.
De-escalation along LoC will also bring down big expenditure getting incurred by the armies of each nations and the savings hence accrued could be gainfully utilized for developmental work and poverty alleviation. However, even although it is a bilateral agreement, there’s also the possibility of a nudge in this path coming from China considering the fact that it now desires to play a dominant part in the “global economic recovery spectrum” and would like to shun acrimonious concerns pertaining to its colonies like Pakistan. All stated and performed, Beijing can soon after all, afford to alter track with the drop of a hat!
If we go into history, there have been a lot of ceasefire violations along LoC and IB but these in no way provoked a war. Yet India and Pakistan have fought complete-scale wars in 1965 and 1971- the former was due to Field Marshal Ayub Khan’s abortive bid to annex Kashmir by utilizing his frequent army disguised as ‘razakars’ (civilian volunteers) and the latter by Gen Yahya Khan in a bid to save the then East Pakistan from gaining independence. So, it is hard to say for confident whether or not this ceasefire will final till all concerns such as the Jammu and Kashmir dispute is resolved as soon as for all.
Speculations are rife that this ceasefire has occurred only mainly because of outdoors stress and the rationale behind this viewpoint is that if the each the nations resume LoC trade, it will give impetus to the shattered economy of Pakistan due to Covid-19 and this will at least curb (if not do away with) infiltration of militants into J&K. Logically speaking, all round added benefits for the populace residing in border regions as nicely as hinterland need to act as an helpful counter to any misadventure. Think Tanks think that superior sense may have prevailed in between nations to enforce this ceasefire as it would prove to be superior for Indo-Pak relations-each now and in the future.
It’s pretty a great deal doable that as far as parleys that resulted in ceasefire are concerned, in addition to stress from Beijing, Islamabad’s selection could have also been driven by the want to win Washington’s favour as nicely as impress FATF, which has retained Pakistan on its ‘Grey List’ till June this year. Since Pakistan’s charade of targeting terrorists of “all hue and colour” has been rejected by FATF, it has no decision but to do anything doable to attempt and get out of the economically disastrous consequences of getting in the Grey List of this international terrorist funding watchdog.
India can not afford to set aside the reality that Pakistan has traditionally been a distrustful neighbour and for that reason the ideal choice is to stay positive about the doable results of the ceasefire initiative but stay vigilant. This is evident from Army Commander, Northern Command Lt Gen YK Joshi assertion that “I want to assure that this ceasefire will have no bearing on the counter militant operations and we will maintain our alertness.” Hence, “the onus of creating an enabling environment for further progress” rests not with India as Imran Khan suggests but with Pakistan as any provocation by the Pakistani forces will invite robust retaliation from Indian army.
Having served as India’s Defence Attaché to China, Lt Gen Joshi understands Beijing’s manoeuvres nicely, which is evident from his mature handling of the circumstance that led to disengagement of Indian and Chinese troops in Eastern Ladakh. At the political level as well, the Government of India has managed this crisis with aplomb, earning international help and Pakistan which was attempting to fish in troubled waters possibly realised that if it continues to exhibit animosity against India, it as well could also face worldwide isolation. So, the developments in Ladakh could nicely be one of the aspects behind Islamabad’s selection to go in for the ceasefire agreement.
The essential query which arises is “what is at stake for Pakistan here?” The answer can be identified in the basic rule of international relations wherein just about every state pursues its personal interests. Thus, when the Kashmir problem could be higher on Islamabad’s agenda, the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which it considers to be a “game-changer” that will repair the country’s ailing economy is far more essential. Accordingly, a peaceful atmosphere designed by the easing of Sino-Indian tensions and Indo-Pak acrimony on LoC will enable diversion of sources to speed up CPEC projects.
Lastly, with the Biden administration highlighting the value of a steady Afghanistan and along with Pakistan recognising the value of India in the dialogue method, Islamabad has no decision but to cease hostilities with India. However, Islamabad have to not relent on its original stance on Kashmir and as an alternative of banking on the international neighborhood, use this chance to continue to have a bilateral dialogue with New Delhi on the Kashmir problem. While the jury is out on how extended this ceasefire shall final, it is important that Pakistan does not shed sight of its bigger policy objectives on each sides of the border.
(The author is Editor Brighter Kashmir, Columnist, Television Commentator, and a Political Analyst. Email: [email protected] Views expressed are private and do not reflect the official position or policy of the TheSpuzz Online.)