By Lt Gen Vinod Bhatia (Retd)
The 16 hour lengthy marathon 9th Corps Commanders level speak among Indian army and PLA at Moldo are indicative of two equals negotiating from a position of strength, each unwilling to either blink or resort to any brinkmanship. The joint press release as usual speaks of “a candid and in depth exchange of views on disengagement along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the western sector of China- India border areas”. The joint press release goes on to amplify and say that the meeting was positive, sensible and constructive, as also the two sides agreed to sustain the momentum of dialogue and hold the tenth
round of talks. The Indian delegation was led by Lt Gen PGK Menon, a hugely skilled and specialist military leader.
The talks have been by no means anticipated to resolve the nine-month-old standoff along the LAC, initiated by China as aspect of its technique of ‘Military Coercion’. India’s aims and intent is clear, a single not to escalate the present sensitive scenario and two seek an honourable remedy in the close to to mid-term primarily based on the principle of mutual and equitable safety, translated it implies a ‘Status Quo Ante’. China on the other hand would possibly be searching for a favourable face-saving exit, as it could have bitten more than it can chew.
Both the Indian Army and PLA are deployed and ready for the lengthy haul, and therefore no a single seriously anticipated a resolution. The truth that the talks continue is a positive, in spite of the current report of PLA transgressions on 20th January top to a clash at Nakula, Sikkim, which is being attributed as minor and due to regional dynamics by each the ADGPI and Global Times. As the two
statements downplay the patrol clash, it is once more indicative of an intent to resolve difficulties by dialogue. Both sides stay clear of unnecessary friction in added places.
India shocked China with its resolute response and resilience along the LAC to China’s aggressiveness in Eastern Ladakh. The on-ground scenario along the LAC is a single of a stalemate, a draw, with China occupying specific places as aspect of its forward deployment on North bank of Pangong Tso and Depsang, whereas India occupies specific operationally critical heights on personal side of LAC, along the Kailash ridge dominating the critical Chinese garrison of Moldo. The preemptive occupation of the heights on South bank of Pangong Tso, has produced dilemmas for the PLA stopping any additional escalation. India’s thought of stand of ‘ status quo ante’ apparently is not acceptable to China at present as it insists that India 1st withdraw from Kailash Ridge, whereas India. China has overextended itself not only along the LAC with India but also in Taiwan,
South China Sea, Indonesia, Vietnam, Japan and Malaysia. China will wait and aspect in President Biden’s policy adjustments and its influence, and therefore China is getting time till at least the spring of 21 to evaluation the scenario and stance.
In addition, China is currently preparing for the lengthy term by constructing 600 villages along the 3,488 km border (a village every single 5 Kms), which will be populated by Hans, therefore altering the demography. These inhabitants will also act as the eyes and ears of the PLA, giving logistics and manpower assistance in a conflict scenario. The Indian army is effectively supported by the folks residing along our borders.
China’s India challenge provides it 3 primary alternatives:
The 1st and preferred solution will be to continue to occupy the current forward deployment as aspect of its continued military coercion, showcasing China as the sole Asian giant capable of difficult the US for superpower status in a bipolar planet. This solution has specific charges attached in view of a resilient India capable of guarding its national interests and territorial integrity. China could not like to get detracted from its aim of attaining superpower status.
The second solution for China would be to redefine the LAC in its favour by not vacating the present places and continue its policy of ‘Salami Slicing’, testing India’s resolve. This will lead to huge PLA deployment all along the LAC. India’s defensive deployment along the LAC will want to be matched by China, to deny India alternatives for quid pro quo in places not held by the PLA, which are vast.
The third solution for China will be to seek a favourable face-saving exit from the present impasse, by agreeing to Indian demand of a status quo ante. China though working out this solution is probably to seek strategic concessions mostly in other domains.
India will want to negotiate from a position of relative strength at the military, diplomatic and political level. Hence India will want to invest in military capabilities, infrastructure improvement, new-age technologies and logistics. At the political-diplomatic level, India will want to “Bind to Balance” with like-minded nations wherein there is a convergence and convergence of interests. In essence, it is a game of energy and patience.
(The author is Former DGMO and Director CENJOWS. [email protected] Views are private and do not reflect the official position or policy of TheSpuzz Online.)