By Amb Anil Trigunayat,
The fundamental difficulty among India and Pakistan is the excessive verbosity displayed even when a modest step is taken either to normalise the relations or to curtail them. This is specifically what occurred when Pakistan earlier decided to permit the imports of Indian Sugar, Cotton and cotton yarn by means of land and sea borders just after these had been suspended in 2019 due to the bilateral partnership hitting the bottom. But days later the choice of the ECC, which may well not have decided with out PM Imran Khan approving the import deal, was overturned in the Cabinet meeting, which he himself presided more than. It is evident that although the earlier choice was taken on the ground of financial necessity the latter followed as an afterthought considering the fact that it seemed to have offered an imaginary PR edge to the arch-rival India. Hence the transform in thoughts was couched in the common standard pastime and fixation referred to as “J&K” . This time the initiative was referred to as off till India rescinds its Art 370 abrogation of 2019. That ship has sailed. Well that is not taking place so we shall continue to witness the “Kaikeyi in Kopgrah “ like attitude and the hardliners on both sides will again have the last laugh and the relationship could remain accident prone as in the past.
While there has been a lot of informed and uninformed media commentary in India and Pakistan and elsewhere on this “flip-flop’ by PM Imran Khan’s government Indian spokesman Arindam Bagchi in his maiden press briefing smartly waived off the question by stating that “ we are not the right party you should be addressing your question to “. For India it was good to have but not needed to have. Optics could have worked as a CBM.
A study conducted by Afaq Hussain and Nikita Singla “Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses” has elaborated on the loss of chance expense on account of LoC Trade suspension, MFN withdrawal and duty hikes and airspace closure due to the tense state of affairs among Delhi and Islamabad. It states that Indo-Pak cross border trade through 2008-19 amounted to more than Rs 7500 Crores and it generated more than 170000 new jobs on each sides in the border places that normally witness indiscriminate shelling, clearly confirming the peace dividends. It additional concludes that although the direct bilateral trade has hovered about $ 2.6 bn the prospective could exceed $ 37 bn which will be mutually valuable offered the geographical interdependency of business and raw supplies on each sides. It is a recognized reality that although gypsum and cement and rock salt provide an edge to Pakistan in the sugar and cotton yarn and pharmaceuticals India has a definite edge and can meet Islamabad’s specifications conveniently and competitively. While SAARC has remained stunted due to the area defeating politics SAFTA arrangements have carried on. Besides Indian PM’s efforts to nevertheless garner the assistance of SAARC leaders in a joint fight against the Covid 19 and sharing of vaccines as effectively as to produce area wide mechanisms in South Asia are instructive that nations in the area can work with each other when confronted with a calamity. When we speak of international solidarity all nations in the area are the principal and integral component of the chain. Let us not overlook that pandemic and terrorism know no boundaries therefore a joint and sincere fight against them is a prerequisite.
Much more could be completed if items had been standard. However, P2P connect, cultural exchanges which includes lifting of bans on films and artists , humanitarian and healthcare help , religious pilgrimage , sports and cricket and disaster management need to be offered a priority at all occasions as they have the prospective to bridge the political gaps. As such the two nations have frequently exchanged lists of prisoners and nuclear installations and most not too long ago worked on Kartarpur Sahib corridor as effectively as water sharing dialogue irrespective of the state of bilateral relations.
In current occasions just after partial relaxation of the Sino-Indian standoff and below stress and persuasion from quite a few of their pals in the Gulf and the West, Pakistani civil and military leaders have produced some affordable statements that have a tendency to indicate that some type of thaw and formal dialogue among Delhi and Islamabad was most likely. Joint Statement upholding the 2003 ceasefire agreement was a welcome improvement. General Bajwa reportedly desires to bury the previous and has been very vocal stating that Pakistan is prepared to ‘improve our environment by resolving all our outstanding issues with our neighbours through dialogue in a dignified and peaceful manner. Stable Indo-Pak relation is a key to unlock the untapped potential of South and Central Asia by ensuring connectivity between East and West Asia’. So pretty accurate! But unofficial Dialogue Tracks have a lot of ground to cover.
PM Modi in maintaining with utmost civility expressed his concern and most effective wishes for speedy recovery when the reports of PM Imran Khan contracting Covid -19 emerged. He also felicitated the people today of Pakistan on the Pakistan Day in a letter to his counterpart. PM Imran Khan also responded thanking the Indian PM for the greetings but predicating peace and dialogue on resolution of quite a few difficulties which includes J&K. Nothing new in that as bilateral institutional mechanisms have currently been set up years ago delivering for discussions on all difficulties in accordance with the Shimla Accord and Lahore Declaration, amongst other individuals. However, considering the fact that Islamabad refused to take any credible action against terrorist groups operating against India from its soil and has not offered up its policy of supporting and sponsoring Jihadi outfits indulging in cross border terrorism India insisted that “Talks and Terror “cannot continue and that remains the defining line. How would the two align geo-economics with security concerns remains to be seen?
The two sides have stuck to their inflexible positions hence the futility of dialogue is obvious. But there is always some grey in the shades of black and white. It was surmised that the two Foreign Ministers or their senior officials might meet in Dushanbe on the side-lines of the Heart of Asia conference on Afghanistan. It is not uncommon to have pull asides during multilateral conferences and has happened at the highest level earlier. But this time as per the MEA spokesman no meetings were held as far as he knew. Pakistani FM Qureshi got away on the high ground with “If India takes one step, we shall take two.” Some argue that considering the fact that no talks occurred Pakistan had to show its displeasure by overturning the choice to import commodities from India which was observed as a Confidence Building Measure (CBM) even if it was cast in necessity for the domestic wants of people today and business. But the predicament of Indian side is what if when once more the Pakistani deep state resorts to a different terrorist attack, like in the previous as quickly as some peace overtures are manifested or materialised. And the domestic debates in a democracy have their personal dynamic particularly when the ruling establishment is observed or shown to be indulging in vain and vile efforts to normalise relations being aware of also effectively that it could possibly not lead anyplace. Well, that is a lame argument considering the fact that even Kaikeyi had to break her silence but by extracting her pound of flesh. Would Pakistan provide on terrorism? Does it have the capacity or intent – unlikely and doubtful? What is the point in obtaining a dialogue when trade-offs are indefensible and egregious – you nevertheless attempt? While bilateral negotiation are certainly a offered, Pakistan’s iron clad pal China, new identified pal Russia and erstwhile pal USA and ofcourse its peeved benefactors from the Gulf could get of the restricted geo-political mould and compel the politico-military establishment to desist from policy of state sponsored terrorism since quite a few of them not only know but have normally shared intelligence about the terror camps with India. India’s sole concern is this and it need to also remind Pakistan about the “Bhasmasur “story when it rants about getting a victim of terrorism itself. Hope the peace and dialogue among the two neighbours, who are a present of geography and colonialism, will prevail for the bigger superior of people today across the divide. What do you do with the spoilers is for each and every nation to choose.
(The author is Former Ambassador to the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, Libya and Malta. He can be reached at [email protected] Twitter: @aniltrigunayat. Views expressed are individual and do not reflect the official position or policy of TheSpuzz Online.)