Poll strategist Prashant Kishor says it is a fight involving Mamata and Modi and turncoats do not matter, explains how BJP creates worry prior to a contest, and warns that if TMC loses Bengal, India will be headed for one nation, one party, with BJP controlling people’s lives.
RAVISH TIWARI: How is the politics of Bengal distinctive from other states?
… It’s a special election simply because in the final 30-35 years, the ruling party in Bengal has not been challenged by a national ruling party… When the Left was in energy, they have been by no means challenged by the ruling Congress. This is the initially time that Bengal is witnessing a regional ruling party becoming challenged by a national ruling party, which is out there to win at any expense.
Of course, a national party brings in its personal dynamics. They want to utilise caste a lot more than what Bengal has witnessed prior to. This is not to say that caste by no means existed, it is just that you have a political dispensation which in all probability desires to exploit it a bit more. So in that way, it is distinctive. Also, the hype about an election is a lot decrease when two regional parties are fighting. Once you have a ruling national party taking on a ruling regional party, then you have a lot more interest. So individuals like you (the media) are a lot more interested in Bengal than, say, Tamil Nadu.
RAVISH TIWARI: Last year you stated that the BJP will not cross double digits in Bengal. That nonetheless implies 99 of the state’s 294 Assembly seats. What was it based on?
Around November-December final year, there was a lot of hype becoming designed about the BJP, that they are going to sweep the state, get 200 seats and so on. So, it was critical for us to say publicly that this is not true… There is no way that in December the BJP was in a position to be winning 200 seats. And, in our assessment, they would struggle to enter triple digits, and I stand by that remark. If they do, I will cease to exist as a political aide to everyone. I need to quit this space, and quitting this space does not imply Twitter I will not do this work ever.
The BJP’s method in Bengal has 5 legs. One is polarisation. Second, they wanted to discredit Mamata Banerjee and build widespread anger against her. Third, they utilised all implies to make positive that the TMC as a political entity collapses. The fourth method has been to get help of the Scheduled Castes. Fifth, they are banking on Mr Modi’s reputation.
Now, they have been thriving on all 5 counts to varying degrees. They have been in a position to polarise, but the query is whether or not they have polarised the electorate adequate to cross the threshold of 60% (of the majority votes). Historically, when elections come about in a polarised atmosphere, the threshold has been about 50 to 55%. What I imply is that when an election takes place in a polarised atmosphere — in Gujarat post-2002, or in Uttar Pradesh post-Babri Masjid — normally we see 50 to 55% of the majority neighborhood vote for the BJP. In Bengal they have to break that threshold. They can’t win Bengal unless they get at least 60% of the majority votes… I do not consider Bengal is as polarised as we have observed in other components of India.
The second aspect is of discrediting Mamata Banerjee. Now with a 10-year-old government, there is bound to be some anti-incumbency, and of course there is anti-incumbency against the TMC. In some pockets, there could be a bit of anger also. But, if you travel across Bengal, you will come across that (the anger) is largely against the neighborhood TMC leaders, and by and substantial individuals are nonetheless prepared to trust Didi (Mamata Banerjee). And simply because it is Didi’s election, the Trinamool will hold its ground.
The third element is the collapse of TMC. Again, it has been told ad nauseum by national media that there is an exodus from the Trinamool… They (the BJP) use all implies to poach individuals, and they have been thriving in finding say 30-odd MLAs and MPs. For a party as significant as the Trinamool, which has got roughly 230 MLAs and 40-odd MPs, Rajya Sabha and Lok Sabha place collectively, losing 20-25 MLAs is a significant deal, but it is not a collapse of the party.
It has also triggered the realignment that has occurred in the Trinamool following the Lok Sabha elections. There has been a conscious work to realign the organisation on the ground, and lots of who did not come across themselves in essential positions had causes to really feel not so very good and they left…
The fourth is the situation of the Namasudras and Matuas, and the bigger SC neighborhood. The Citizenship (Amendment) Act was announced to get their vote in the Lok Sabha elections. The Namasudras, a pretty substantial neighborhood inside SCs, voted en masse for the BJP (in the 2019 polls). But in the subsequent by-elections in Bengal, even in Namasudra-dominated places, they lost. Since then, by and substantial they are attempting to downplay the CAA. There is no chatter about chronology that we heard earlier.
And ultimately, Modi’s reputation. I need to admit he is very popular… He is in all probability the most preferred BJP leader. (But in Bengal) He is not more preferred than Didi. And in an election exactly where it is about electing a chief minister, in all probability we have an benefit.
AVISHEK G DASTIDAR: How a lot has your presence added to the narrative of the TMC’s collapse, with lots of leaders like Suvendu Adhikari alleging that Mamata does not run the TMC?
I am there to do a job, which is to assist the Trinamool win elections. I am not there to make friends… Suvendu Adhikari was a highly effective Trinamool leader. He has stated on stage that he has been in touch with the BJP given that 2014. Now, if you are advising the Trinamool and you know this reality, what would you say? You would say that please get rid of these individuals. Also, given that the reorganisation following the Lok Sabha polls, some may possibly have felt that they have not got as a lot prominence as they would have liked… Okay, blame Prashant Kishor simply because he is new… It does not bother me. Somebody will run the affairs. To say that Prashant Kishor is running… Earlier it was Suvendu Adhikari, prior to that Mukul Roy… A lot of individuals are generating accusations that Didi is no longer operating the party.
My argument is Mr Amit Shah runs the BJP. All the choices of organisation and otherwise are taken by him. But can we say that Mr Modi is not operating the BJP? It is not a valid argument. Whoever the leader of the party trusts will run the party as per her wishes and path. Didi is the core of the Trinamool, there is no Trinamool without the need of Mamata Banerjee. She is not a element-time politician she is there 24/7. You can’t make any important selection without the need of her consent… I’m not a issue, Suvendu Adhikari is not a issue. The fight is involving Mr Modi and Ms Mamata Banerjee I’m inconsequential. People like me are inconsequential. We are in all probability providing ourselves also a lot value on each sides.
MONOJIT MAJUMDAR: What certain inputs do you give Didi in terms of candidate choice, method?
The work we do is very misunderstood. We do every thing that is expected to be carried out to assist the party or the leader who we are working for to win the election. We do every thing. Now if I do their social media, or assist them with information, or whether or not I’m carrying out candidate choice or advising her on her speeches… It is futile to get into that. We do every thing that is expected for a party that is prepared to seek our opinion. Do you consider the BJP tends to make candidate selections without the need of inputs from specialist agencies? What are you speaking about? Do you consider it is achievable for the central committee of the BJP to sit right here and know the nuances of the block- and taluka-level politics in West Bengal or Tamil Nadu and make these choices?
DIPANKAR GHOSE: Will anti-incumbency and anger against neighborhood leaders influence the TMC’s possibilities?
Yes, it is a issue and that is why the work is to mitigate it to the extent achievable. Almost 60% of the Block presidents are now new. More than 80 MLAs have been dropped. All these items, I hope, have contributed to mitigate… I am not saying everybody will turn into a fan of your government, but it will surely assist mitigate some of the anger, if there was any.
RAVISH TIWARI: By carrying out items like reciting Chandi Path, is Mamata Banerjee falling into the BJP’s trap. Also, is she opting for defensive techniques?
…It is proper to be a bit defensive and not unnecessarily take also lots of dangers, simply because elections are also about not generating unforced errors. Yes, you want to win, but you do not want to commit also lots of unforced errors. Why would she go and do a thing which could be risky? We have a very good lead… It is for the BJP to take the danger.
HARISH DAMODARAN: Both the TMC and DMK (which Kishor is also working for) are playing on sub-national pride. But do not you consider a new constituency is coming up which appears at Hindi as aspirational, Lord Ram as aspirational, and that Mr Modi is addressing them straight?
As a political entity, you are entitled to use what you consider is going to work for you. If you consider Ram or Hindi is going to work for you, or building a national identity is going to work for you, you can use it. If somebody else thinks building a sub-national identity — that I’m a Bengali or a Tamilian — is going to assist, then they are entitled to use it… At the finish of the day it is a provincial election. If Mr Modi says I am son of Gujarat, he has a organic benefit in Gujarat. So if a person is claiming I am the daughter of Bengal, what is incorrect in that? She (Mamata) is a daughter of Bengal…
KRISHN KAUSHIK: As a political strategist, do you see any weaknesses in the BJP’s Bengal campaign and Brand Modi in unique?
In Bengal, they (the BJP) haven’t been in a position to present a positive narrative. You say Didi’s government has not delivered but the BJP has not presented any option agenda either. So if there is a weakness, it is that they haven’t been in a position to present a positive narrative or positive agenda… and that is going to be the decisive issue.
(On Brand Modi) I am not an specialist but the BJP normally underperforms in Vidhan Sabha elections compared to the Lok Sabha polls. The overall performance in the Lok Sabha can be attributed to Mr Modi’s reputation, but the reverse is also correct — the below-overall performance is simply because of his inability to transfer his votes to the provincial leader. If you plot it on a graph, you will see a downward trend (in Assembly poll benefits) given that 2014. I am not saying he is not preferred, but his potential to transfer votes is in all probability beginning to go down a tiny bit… For instance, given that 2019, the BJP’s overall performance in Assembly polls has observed a double-digit percentage point decline in vote share, whether or not it is Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Delhi or Bihar. Everywhere they have observed close to 12 percentage point decline given that 2019. This underperformance was in higher single digits involving 2014 and 2019.
RAVISH TIWARI: What do you make of doubts more than EVMs by political parties?
Unless you have substantive proof to back what you are saying, it is just gossip. Even if it is correct, I do not have proof…
RITIKA CHOPRA: But the TMC has raised the situation of rigging of EVMs….
Political parties can raise the situation. I am not right here to comment on the Election Commission of India… (But) It is not a coincidence or, perhaps it is, that all the seats in which the BJP was major in the Lok Sabha polls are becoming slotted for the initially 4-5 rounds… For the initially time a district is becoming carved out for 3, 4 or 5 rounds. For instance, Nadia North is run by the Trinamool and Nadia South by the BJP. Now South goes to polls initially, North later… We would like to think that the ECI is independent. But if you are genuinely turning the lens on it… Why ought to 4 out of 31 seats of South 24 Parganas be slotted in round one? It’s beyond me… We know that in a phased election, if you get early traction, you are most likely to advantage on the margins in terms of perception. All strongholds of the Trinamool are slotted in the sixth, seventh and eighth rounds…
RAVISH TIWARI: Do consider identity or social justice politics has come to Bengal?
Identity politics was generally there. It’s a query of how a lot you play it up. I haven’t gone to any state in India exactly where caste/identity is not a issue. The SCs in Bengal are the most critical issue in these elections. This is not to say that Rajbanshis and Namasudras… didn’t exist earlier. They generally existed, parties paid interest to them also. But it is now becoming brought to the forefront a bit more… just like we have observed in UP and Bihar.
RAVISH TIWARI: The Modi government has completed seven years. What has changed electorally and what nonetheless remains a continual?
I have stated this in the context of the Bengal elections… If the BJP have been to win, we are searching at the prospect of one nation, one party. Why do I say so? We have observed governments with a larger majority than this one. We have also observed parties ruling India for far longer than this. Why are we saying that this is distinctive? It is simply because of the cause that beyond your voting preference, right here is a government that desires full dominance on the psychological mindspace of individuals. They do not just want your vote. They also want to interfere into what you put on, consume, who you are buddies with, and what your faith is. That bothers people… Never prior to in this nation, a ruling party has provided a war cry to wipe off the Opposition. That is problematic… People are not worried simply because they voted for them (the BJP) and they are in majority. People are worried that when they come, they will say you can’t put on jeans, be buddies with Muslims… Hence, in this backdrop, if they win Bengal, we would have produced a decisive step in the path of one nation, one party.
VANDITA MISHRA: When parties rely on specialist organisations like yours, does it imply they are losing faith in personal feedback mechanisms? Also, given that you deal with campaigns for parties, how critical is a campaign for winning an election?
It is not that parties have lost faith in their personal feedback mechanisms… (At the) End of the day, it is the politician who tends to make the selection. Whether he is basing his choices on two inputs or 20 inputs is immaterial. But logically speaking, more the sources of facts, improved are the possibilities of factoring in lots of more problems.
Campaigns per se can’t make you win or shed elections. We gather information for some individuals, handle social media for other folks. We also assist in candidate choice. But we have taken a conscious get in touch with that we will only do elections exactly where we have an chance of a year or a year-and-a-half, exactly where we assist rebuild the party and leader. If you look at our association with the Trinamool or the DMK, it is a lot longer. So by campaign if you imply the efforts in the final 30 or 60 days, that can’t transform the outcome.
RAVISH TIWARI: You stated what is worrying about this dispensation is that they want to go beyond the vote. How helpful has the Opposition been in speaking about this?
It is worrying for a lot of individuals but the Opposition is just not finding it. They are thinking… it is simply because they (the BJP) are winning elections and the media is fearful… But winning elections is not building fear… People are a lot more fearful simply because they (the BJP) want full dominance beyond votes, electoral politics… They want to reset the narrative — the way you consider, work. That is building worry and the Opposition is not handling that situation.
Why have we provided this ‘Khela hobe’ slogan in West Bengal? Before the BJP enters an election, they build psychological worry. They are a 3-MLA party in Bengal and Amit Shah comes and claims Didi is gone and that she is alone. You give up without the need of fighting. Hence, we are saying game on. That’s why this (Khela hobe) has turn into such a significant factor. So a lot so that the PM is responding each and every day to it.
The second element is the repositioning from didi (sister) to beti (daughter). When you get in touch with a person didi, you are searching at them as the provider, the protector… And therefore the slogan ‘Bangla nijer meyeke chai (Bengal wants its own daughter)’.