By Sameet Chavan
After a sturdy recovery in the week gone by, we started Monday’s session on a sturdy note practically towards the 17950 mark. In absence of comply with-up acquiring, the benchmark index consolidated in a variety of merely one hundred points to conclude tad above 17850. On a subsequent day, the Nifty opened in green but failed to hold early morning gains ideal from the word go. In truth, the promoting worsened as we progressed to tank under 17800 1st and then 17600. The action wasn’t more than but, as we saw Nifty witnessing a sharp bounce back to trim a significant portion of the intraday losses to practically reclaim 17750 at the close.
In the last couple of sessions of the month-to-month expiry, the benchmark index remained in a tight variety with some hint of profit booking towards the fag finish of Thursday’s session. Although this week so far, Nifty came off a bit from all-time highs, the September expiry panned out incredibly properly for the bulls as they added practically 6% to their kitty. Honestly, for the second half of this September month, we maintained a cautious stance on the market place and it moved substantially more than we had anticipated. In such a sturdy bull run, it may well not be smart to remain with the cautious stance but the sort of time-projections and damaging divergence in momentum oscillators we are observing, we would continue with the exact same.
The overstretched market place can surprise us any time and therefore we reiterate staying light in the market place. As we step into the new series, it would be intriguing to see how points take location going ahead on the domestic as properly as the worldwide front.
Now let’s take a swift look at the all round F&O activities. This week, we did see FIIs pulling back their hands a bit as we witnessed a very good quantity of promoting in Equities as properly as in index and stock futures. In addition, the worry index, India VIX, surged in the last 3 sessions, indicating a rise in volatility going ahead.
In the F&O space, the only element that is indicating an oversold position is the Nifty PCR, which has dropped under 1. Let’s see how points shape up going ahead. As far as levels are concerned, 17800 – 17950 remains to be an quick hurdle whereas on the decrease side, 17450 – 17300 are to be seen as crucial supports. The 1st sign of weakness would be visible only just after breaking the decrease variety.
(Sameet Chavan is Chief Analyst – Technical and Derivatives, Angel One Limited. Views expressed are the author’s personal.)