In the last six consecutive RBI MPC meetings, the repo rate was kept unchanged at 6.5 per cent, with the central bank’s focus on aligning inflation towards its target of four per cent.
RBI MPC meeting dates
The MPC started its three-day meeting on April 3. The meeting will conclude with the RBI governor’s address on Friday.
RBI MPC: Date and time
The policy decision will be announced on Friday, April 5 by Shaktikanta Das at 10 am. A press conference will be held at noon.
RBI MPC: Where to watch?
Shaktikanta Das’s speech can be streamed online on the RBI’s official YouTube channel and official social media handle on X.
Other key dates for FY25 MPC meets
The next MPC meetings have been scheduled for the following dates:
June 5-7, 2024
August 6-8, 2024
October 7-9, 2024
December 4-6, 2024
February 5-7, 2025
RBI policy decision: What does MPC do?
The MPC’s task is to keep the country’s retail inflation within four per cent with a margin of two per cent on either side.
The committee meets at least four times a year to discuss the direction the central bank wants to pursue in the financial year, with the aim to strike a balance between sustaining growth and maintaining the inflation target.
Following their assessment, the committee decides whether to maintain, raise, or lower the repo rate.
RBI monetary policy: What to expect?
Despite expectations for a potential shift, the domestic rate-setting panel opted to maintain the status quo in all six policy review meetings throughout the financial year 2023-24.
This decision came in the wake of encouraging economic indicators, including an upward revision in the National Statistical Office’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth estimates for the first two quarters of FY24. With three consecutive quarters witnessing gross domestic product expansion exceeding eight per cent and a Consumer Price Index (CPI) print of 5.1 per cent for February 2024, respondents in a ‘Business Standard’ poll anticipate a continuation of the current rates and stance in the upcoming April 2024 meeting.
Aditi Nayar, chief economist at ICRA, highlighted the importance of sustained growth momentum and external factors such as the US Federal Reserve’s rate decisions and the monsoon turnout in shaping future policy actions. She noted that a change in the policy stance is unlikely before the August 2024 Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) review.
Vikas Goel, managing director and chief executive officer of PNB Gilts, echoed the sentiment of maintaining the current stance, citing the rationale provided by the governor. He emphasized that lending rates have remained stable since the last MPC meeting and suggested that continuity in the defined logic of the stance should guide future decisions unless there is a shift in the committee’s perspective.
Some respondents anticipate a potential rate cut by the RBI in Q3 FY25. Factors such as incoming economic data, weather conditions, especially amidst hotter summer months, and global rate cut cycles will play crucial roles in determining the timing of policy adjustments, according to Achala P Jethmalani, an economist at RBL Bank.
All respondents in the poll unanimously agreed that the RBI would continue with the “withdrawal of accommodation” stance.
First Published: Apr 04 2024 | 6:50 PM IST