London:
The Delta coronavirus variant of concern, initially identified in India, is believed to be 60% more transmissible than the Alpha variant which was previously dominant in Britain, a prominent UK epidemiologist mentioned on Wednesday.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has mentioned that England’s complete reopening from COVID-19 lockdown, pencilled in for June 21, could be pushed back due to the speedy spread of the Delta variant.
Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London told reporters that estimates of Delta’s transmission edge more than Alpha had narrowed, and “we think 60% is probably the best estimate”.
Ferguson mentioned that modelling recommended any third wave of infections could rival Britain’s second wave in the winter – which was fuelled by the Alpha variant initially identified in Kent, south east England.
But it was unclear how any spike in hospitalisations would translate into a rise in deaths, as more detail was required on how nicely the vaccine protects against really serious illness from Delta.
“It’s well within possibility that we could see another third wave at least comparable in terms of hospitalisations,” he mentioned.
“I think deaths probably would be lower, the vaccines are having a highly protective effect… still it could be quite worrying. But there is a lot of uncertainty.”
Britain has seen more than 1,27,000 deaths inside 28 days of a positive COVID-19 test, but has provided more than 3-quarters of adults a initially dose of COVID-19 vaccine.
Public Health England has shown that the Delta variant reduces the effectiveness of Pfizer and AstraZeneca shots amongst these who have only received one shot, although protection is larger for these who have received each doses.
Ferguson mentioned that up to a quarter of the Delta variant’s transmissibility edge more than Alpha could possibly come from its immune escape from vaccines, saying it was “a contribution but not an overwhelming contribution” to its benefit.
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