Analysts expect the bank’s financial performance to weaken on a quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) basis, due to lower interest income. On a year-on-year (YoY) basis, however, profit after tax (PAT) may rise up to 140 per cent.
Here’s what key brokerages expect:
The brokerage has pencilled-in 5 per cent increase in net interest income (NII) for Q4FY23, at Rs 11,353.9 crore, relative to Rs 10,818.3 crore seen in Q3FY23. On a yearly basis, though, it would be a 32 per cent jump from Rs 8,611.7 crore.
The net profit, meanwhile, is seen surging 8 per cent QoQ/135 per cent YoY to Rs 4,173.3 crore. PAT was Rs 3,852.7 crore in Q3FY23 and Rs 1,778.8 crore in Q4FY22.
Bank of Baroda, it said, is expected to report loan growth marginally higher than the industry trend, at 18 per cent YoY and 3 per cent QoQ.
Therefore, the brokerage pegs NII Rs 11,000 crore, up nearly 28 per cent YoY/2 per cent QoQ. NIMs (net interest margins) may inch up at 3.5 per cent.
Asset quality is expected to witness a marginal improvement QoQ with gross non-performing asset (GNPA) ratio declining 8-10 bp.
This brokerage has a slightly cautious estimate for net profit at Rs 3,054 crore, up 72 per cent YoY, but down 21 per cent QoQ, due to some moderation in margins and a pick-up in credit cost sequentially.
Slippages may increase from the lows of Q2, it warned.
The brokerage has baked in operating profit growth of 40 per cent YoY, to Rs 7,969 crore, led by strong revenue growth and stable costs.
The operating profit could, however, drop 3 per cent QoQ on the back of a 27 per cent and 22.2 per cent sequential decline in fee income and treasury income, respectively.
“We expect slippages at around 1.7 per cent (Rs 3,800 crore) and offset by a meaningful quantum from recoveries and upgrades from the retail and SME portfolio. We expect to hear commentary to be quite positive on asset quality. Key discussion would be the sustainability of loan growth, deposit related challenges and NIM outlook in the near term,” it said.