Assam Assembly Election: Assam is heading for a bipolar contest with Congress-led UPA gaining momentum against the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) just ahead of the elections starting March 27. Just 5 years ago, the Congress was decimated in the state which it ruled, in the final spell, for a superior 15 years prior to ceding ground to the BJP. Like other North-eastern states, the saffron party had no presence in the state till about 3 decades back. However, soon after 2014, the BJP, one soon after yet another, painted the area saffron. In 2016, the BJP-led NDA uprooted the Congress government headed by then chief minister Tarun Gogoi by winning 86 seats, 60 more than what it got in the prior contest. The ruling party, on the other hand, went down from 78 seats in 2011 to 26 in 2016. This present election, having said that, does not look like a cakewalk for the saffron party contemplating the Mahajuth (grand alliance) of six parties that has been stitched by the Congress to consolidate votes against the BJP.
United Muslim votes soon after alliance with Badruddin Ajmal
Assam has about 35 per cent Muslim votes with a sizable presence in Barpeta, Dhubri, Nagaon, Karimganj, Kaliabor and Silchar. Usually, minority votes go to the Congress but in Assam, it is divided in between the grand old party and powerful regional outfit AIUDF of Badruddin Ajmal. Until 2011, when the BJP was not there, this division of votes did not matter that considerably as Ajmal played the function of opposition. But considering the fact that the saffron party has turn out to be a dominant force and occupied energy, that division of votes became a headache for each the parties — Congress and AIUDF. To stay away from any more division of minority votes in the state, the Congress has allied with Ajmal. Of 126 seats, the Congress is contesting on 93 whilst AIUDF on 14. In the final election, Ajmal’s party had won 15, 5 significantly less than what it secured in 2011. So, if the Congress manages to avoid the division, which appears plausible, it can place the saffron party in critical difficulty.
Opposition unity to consolidate all anti-BJP votes
Not only with Ajmal, the Congress has an alliance with six other parties — Hagrama Mohilary’s Bodoland People’s Front, Ajit Kumar Bhuyan-led Anchalik Gana Morcha, Communist Party of India (Marxist), Communist Party of India, Communist Party of India (Marxist–Leninist) Liberation, and Rashtriya Janata Dal. This successfully tends to make this election a bipolar contest with Congress-led UPA vs BJP-led NDA. In such a contest, the fight becomes close and the party can win or drop the election with a marginal vote shift to either side. By stitching an alliance of eight parties, the Congress might succeed in consolidating anti-BJP votes.
A close look at the prior election’s numbers could give a glimpse of what may unfold. In 2016, the BJP, AGP and BPF with each other had got practically 42 per cent (41.9 per cent to be precise) votes whilst the Congress had secured 31 per cent and Ajmal 13 per cent. Combined vote share of Congress and AIUDF operates out to be 44 per cent, 2 per cent larger than the NDA. And if one adds the vote share of other six parties then the quantity could go up someplace 48 per cent, leaving independents.
Will anti-CAA sentiment translate into anti-BJP votes?
Four years into energy, the BJP faced its toughest challenge in the type of CAA in Assam. Here, the protest against the Citizenship Amendment Act was not restricted to just Muslims but also against Hindus, who have been believed to have come from the neighbouring Bangladesh. The protest against the CAA was not about religion but guarding distinct culture and ethnicity that people today assume would be at threat — a lot of think it has currently been disturbed — if the Centre permits more (or regularise current) influx in what ever way. Assam descended into chaos and violence soon after the citizenship law was brought in by the BJP government in the Centre. The state government of the BJP also faced backlash with people today turning back its leading leaders like chief minister Sonowal and finance minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, who is also deemed to be the czar of Northeastern politics. The opposition against the duo was such that for the duration of a match in Guwahati, they have been shown black flags and ‘Go Back’ slogans have been raised against them.
However, considerably of this opposition changed as the Covid pandemic struck. Sarma, who was on getting finish, abruptly became a hero for his handling of the pandemic. In an interview to Deccan Herald, Sarma stated that post-Covid, the effect of CAA agitation had largely minimised, and now it had turn out to be a subject of intellectual debate only. On a check out to the poll-bound state, Rahul Gandhi not too long ago stated that he will in no way enable CAA in Assam. The Congress has been attempting to consolidate votes of anti-CAA protestors and supporting these major the fight against the Centre. While practically nothing can be stated on which way the anti-CAA protestors will go, the sentiment of the people today (especially) on the law is against the BJP.
The Bodoland element
The Congress can also capitalise on anger of Bodos, who have presence in 12 assembly seats that come beneath the Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC). In 2016, the BJP had Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) as its companion but now the latter has joined the Congress. The saffron party, on the other hand, has allied with yet another Bodo leader Pramod Boro, who heads the United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL). In the current BTC election, the BPF won 17 of 37 it contested and the UPPL won 12 of 40 seats. The BJP bagged 9 but the Congress could get just 1. However, the Congress can turn the benefits with the induction of BPF into the grand alliance. After joining the grand alliance, BPF chief spokesperson Khampa Borgoyari stated that the saffron party in the final election had won at least 28 seats since of his party. The BJP, he stated, will drop 28-30 seats in this election.
In this election, the BJP has alliance with Asom Gana Parishad of Atul Bora and United People’s Party Liberal of Pramod Boro. The BJP is contesting on 92 seats whilst AGP on 26 and UPPL on just 8. In 2016, the AGP had contested on 24 seats and won 14. Polling will take location in 3-phases from March 27 and benefits will be declared on May 2.