4QFY21 – in line with our estimates: Volumes have been in line with our estimate at 2.9mmscmd (up 4% YoY/QoQ). Ebitda/scm stood at Rs 12.1 (v/s Rs 12.4 in 3QFY21 +26% YoY). The gross margin remained flat QoQ at Rs 17.7/scm (+16% YoY), although opex moderately enhanced QoQ to Rs 4.9/scm (v/s Rs 4.5 in 3QFY21 flat YoY). CNG volumes stood at 2mmscmd (+2% YoY +7% QoQ). PNG volumes came in at .9mmscmd (+8% YoY -2% QoQ). PNG domestic volumes fell 10% QoQ to .46mmscmd – as demand for household cooking declined with the opening up of offices.
Ebitda was in line at Rs 3.2b (+30% YoY). PAT came in at Rs 2.1b (+28% YoY), with the tax price at 25.8%. FY21 – margins expand volumes drive effect: Ebitda stood at Rs 9.3b (-11% YoY) regardless of Ebitda/scm expanding to Rs 11.6 (v/s Rs 9.7 in FY20). Volumes, down 25% YoY to 2.2mmscmd, led the effect. CNG volumes fell 34% YoY to 1.4mmscmd. PNG volumes have been flat YoY at .8mmscmd (PNG domestic volumes aided 15% development, although decline was seen in PNG Industry/Commercial). PBT/PAT stood at Rs 8.3b/Rs 6.2b (-15% YoY/-22% YoY). The organization announced final dividend of Rs 14/share (in addition to interim dividend of Rs 9/share), totaling Rs 23/share in FY21.
Valuation and view – preserve Buy: The organization has been guiding for lengthy-term volume development of 5–6% per year. Growth would mainly be driven by the development of the Raigad GA, which has total volume prospective of ~.5mmscmd more than the next 3–4 years. PNG-industrial penetration in MAHGL’s GAs is just ~20% as it currently has the pipeline infrastructure in location and only last-mile connectivity is necessary, this presents upside prospective in volumes. That stated, MAHGL highlighted that the additions of CNG stations in Mumbai (GA1) and Thane Urban (GA2) are proving to be a challenge due to the scarcity of accessible land.
The stock trades at 14x FY23E EPS of Rs 81, with dividend yield of ~3% for FY22/FY23E. We preserve Buy taking into consideration the company’s appealing valuations.