Polling will be completed in Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and the U.T. of Puducherry two days from today and element-completed in West Bengal, with 5 phases remaining. The BJP has higher stakes in Assam and West Bengal and is producing a desperate work to get a toehold in the other 3 locations. The Congress has equally higher stakes in Assam and Kerala exactly where it is fighting to regain energy and in Tamil Nadu exactly where it is assisting the DMK regain energy.
Nothing is specific about the outcome of any election. More so, when there are essential players other than the Congress and the BJP such as the CPI(M) in Kerala, TMC in West Bengal and AINRC in Puducherry. In every of these locations, there is a well known, although controversial, person major his/her party — Mr Pinarayi Vijayan (Kerala), Ms Mamata Banerjee (West Bengal) and Mr N Rangasamy (Puducherry).
DMK, TMC will win
Pre-poll surveys can indicate only the path of the election, not the outcome. Based on distinctive surveys, it seems to me that the DMK alliance will win in Tamil Nadu and the TMC will win in West Bengal. In Assam and Kerala the rival alliances are more or significantly less evenly matched and the elections could throw up surprising final results. Puducherry reveals a confusing image.
The Congress is fighting on a widespread plank of states’ rights, secularism, pluralism and addressing the acute financial distress. The BJP has a state-precise agenda. It is the CAA in Bengal but a studied silence on the CAA in Assam. It is a communal agenda in Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. By forging broad alliances, the Congress has thwarted the BJP’s purpose of a Congress-mukt India. By aggressively and unapologetically pushing its agenda, the BJP has taken a big gamble.
Beyond Election Results
While the final results of the elections in the 4 states are of quick interest, the bigger query is how will the nation be governed in the 3 remaining years of the BJP government at the Centre. The fundamental principles of governance of the Modi government (basically, the individual Mr Narendra Modi) are fairly evident:
Firstly, Mr Modi will not brook any dissent. Dissenting Opposition leaders and Opposition parties will be punished. Apart from the Congress which is the prime target, other individuals who are targeted by the investigating agencies are the National Conference and Peoples Democratic Party in Jammu & Kashmir the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal the Nationalist Congress Party in Maharashtra the CPI(M) in Kerala and the DMK in Tamil Nadu. Among these spared are the Biju Janata Dal in Odisha, the YSR Congress Party in Andhra Pradesh and the Telangana Rashtra Samithi in Telangana. The parties, which includes their leaders, that are cosseted are the JD (United) in Bihar and the AIADMK in Tamil Nadu. Never just before has the energy of the Central government been so blatantly abused in order to market the hegemony of one political party.
Secondly, the brute majority in the Lok Sabha and the capacity to stitch with each other a very simple majority in the Rajya Sabha will be used to pass legislation that are manifestly unconstitutional, in addition to becoming unjust. The legislation to dismember J&K and to cut down the government of Delhi to a glorified municipality are the most current examples. Earlier examples have been the Citizenship (Amendment) Act and the 3 farm laws. More can be anticipated. The reprieve offered by the courts — due to numerous motives — indicates that these laws will precise their toll till they are examined and pronouncements are created.
Thirdly, there will be no spot for new suggestions, new initiatives or new experiments to enhance the administration. There is spot for only one believed — Modi Thought. An instance is the mess that has been created of the Covid-19 vaccination programme. The initially step to prioritise well being and frontline workers was right, but all subsequent measures have been completely incorrect. Particularly incorrect have been the staggered phases, the App, the requirement for pre-registration and bureaucratic oversight. Contrast the vaccination drive with the Pulse Polio programme. A very simple announcement of the date (when oral polio drops will be offered) brings thousands of mothers with their babies to every single sort of hospital or well being centre. The outcome of bureaucratisation of the vaccination programme is unconscionable delay that will frustrate the target of 400 million jabs by the finish of July 2021. Meanwhile, thousands will be infected and hundreds will die every single day. The identical ‘follow the Modi Thought’ rule impacts every single programme of the government from the PM Awas Yojana to crop insurance coverage. Incidentally, each are enormous failures.
More into Poverty
Fourthly, the policies to market financial recovery will be determined by corporate interests. Hence, the government has followed a provide-side driven method that has denied a fiscal stimulus, delayed the recovery, left millions of folks unemployed, designed handful of new jobs, lowered the earnings of every single section of the population and pushed more folks into poverty and debt. Compassion for the poor and the middle classes is entirely absent: examples are the extortionate costs of petrol, diesel and cooking gas and the heartless slashing of interest prices on tiny savings when inflation is printing at 6 per cent and is anticipated to rise.
The million dollar query is, will the final results of the elections reinforce these fundamental principles of Modi Thought or will they result in a shake-up of the government and the ruling party?