The individuals of India — or at least the vast majority — have reached a point exactly where they have come to the conclusion that they have to rely only on themselves, and their households and close friends, to safeguard their lives. In the battle against Covid-19, the State, specifically the Central government, has withered away. A couple of state governments nevertheless take pleasure in a modicum of trust, like Kerala and Odisha. Since there is a alter of government in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry, one has to reserve judgement about them.
No party can escape blame. Some attempted tough in spite of obstacles, some faltered, and some buried the details and relied on bluff and bluster. The victims are the individuals.
Arguments will not settle the challenge about who is primarily accountable for this terrible state of affairs simply because this is not the Age of Reason. Instead, it is more politic to re-state particular indisputable details and leave it to every single person to answer that query. Here goes my list:
Demand vs Supply
1. The simple table:
The approximate size of every single target group is out there and was recognized to the government. Hence, the quantity that will be added on the demand side on every single milestone date was calculable, but this was not completed. The quantity of vaccine doses that would be essential was Demand quantity x 2. Allowing for initial vaccine hesitancy, it was attainable to calculate the probable demand for vaccine doses. This also was by no means completed.
2. The rated capacity of the two Indian companies — Serum Institute and Bharat Biotech — was recognized to the government. The actual manufacturing capacity and price of scaling up could have been ascertained by factory inspection and periodic audit. This also was by no means completed.
Vaccination with out vaccines!
3. A firm order for vaccines was placed with Serum Institute and Bharat Biotech only on 11-01-2021. Initial supplies had been made by the two corporations from their stocks created at their personal threat. Thus, beneficial time was lost in encouraging the two corporations to ramp up production.
4. At least one enterprise (Serum Institute), and probably each, essential funding to enhance capacity. The monetary help for capacity addition has not been granted till this date. Supply advances had been announced on 19-04-2021, but this is akin to advance payment for provide, not a capital grant or loan to enhance capacity.
5. Export of India-made vaccines was permitted till March 2021. It was prohibited only on 29-03-2021. Meanwhile, 5.8 crore doses of vaccines had been exported.
6. Emergency-use approval for the Pfizer vaccine was stonewalled as a outcome of which Pfizer withdrew its application. The third vaccine, Sputnik V, was granted EUA (emergency use authorisation) only on 12-04-2021 and the 1st consignment landed in India only on 01-05-2021. No other vaccine has been authorized for use or imported into India till this date.
7. Much of the further overall health infrastructure made in 2020 was dismantled right after October 2020 and had to be re-erected right after the second wave began in March 2021, placing intolerable stress on the surviving infrastructure like hospital beds, ventilators and oxygen tankers/concentrators.
8. As the 1st wave plateaued, testing slowed down significantly. When the quantity of samples tested declines, the quantity of new infections detected will fall also. Testing was not accelerated. The roof was not fixed although the sun was shining, the roof is leaking when the rain is pouring.
9. The quantity of vaccination doses administered each day, alternatively of increasing, has declined. On April 2, an impressive 42,65,157 doses had been administered. The each day typical for April, having said that, was only about 30 lakh. In May, the typical per day has additional fallen to about 18.5 lakh. The vaccination programme is suffocating due to a shortage of vaccines.
Deny, deny more
10. There was no program to map and tap prospective sources in case of an emergency. For instance, there was no program to augment oxygen sources, convert nitrogen/argon tankers into oxygen tankers, import and erect PSA (stress swing absorption) plants, and import and stock oxygen concentrators and ventilators. There was no program to augment the quantity of nurses and paramedics.
11. When the second wave began, it was assumed that it would be like the 1st wave, increasing gradually, then plateauing, and then declining. No try was made to picture many scenarios such as the worst-case situation. Hence, there was no program to counter the swift rise and spread of the second wave. It is fair to assume that there is no program to counter a third wave or fourth wave.
12. There is no IEC — info, education and communication — method to public overall health. The government’s method through the 1st wave was oriented towards publicity, posturing and triumphalism. In the second wave, the method is denial (“there is no shortage of oxygen”, “there are enough stocks of vaccines with the states”), burying the truth and passing the buck to the states. The outcome is utter chaos and confusion and no accountability. In any other nation, heads would have rolled.
Over to the reader, to pronounce the verdict.