By Maj Gen Jagatbir Singh (Retd),
“A nation at peace and a region in harmony are thus essential prerequisites for attainment of national security in the true spirit. No national leaders of today can ignore these factors. I also firmly believe that no single nation in isolation, can perceive and further its quest for security, as every single issue and security dilemma faced by today’s world is intimately linked with global and regional dynamics.” A statement of truth which is what General Qamar Bajwa stated not too long ago at the Islamabad Security Dialogue. The fault lines in fractured Pakistan are evident and widening and Pakistan has been indulging in a proxy war with its neighours ,though at the very same time the area is also a triad of 3 nuclear nations , therefore neither is the ‘ nation at peace’ nor the’ area in harmony’.
He then hinted that Pakistan had been following a incorrect path when he stated that one of the pillars of their geo- financial vision for the future was “non-interference of any kind in the internal affairs of our neighbouring and regional countries”.
“Stable Indo-Pak relation is a key to unlock the untapped potential of South and Central Asia … This potential however, has forever remained hostage to disputes and issues between two nuclear neighbours. Kashmir dispute is obviously at the heart of this problem. It is important to understand that without the resolution of Kashmir dispute through peaceful means, process of sub-continental rapprochement will always remain susceptible to derailment due to politically motivated bellicosity. However, we feel that it is time to bury the past and move forward. But for resumption of peace process or meaningful dialogue, our neighbour will have to create conducive environment.”
As the Army remains firmly in manage of the Pakistan’s safety and foreign policy, the policies getting articulated by General Bajwa need to have to be deliberated as they signal a shift in their considering. What are the variables that have led to this statement which follows close on the heels of the ceasefire on the Line of Control? What must India do to respond? Or is the extension of an olive branch is merely a tactical move to acquire time and get more than its present crisis predicament?
It is effectively recognized that Pakistan’s economy has suffered for the duration of the pandemic, they have a increasing debt burden, been unable to return USD 1 bn to the UAE, and are consequently requesting the deposit to be converted into a loan, and it has a spiraling defence expenditure. It has no dollars to spend for new defence acquisitions from nations other than China and Turkey, additional the US has not too long ago blocked the sale of engines of the ATAK -12 helicopters Pakistan was shopping for from Turkey. China has provided a loan of $ 5bn to acquire warships and submarines. CPEC loans plus interest will be $90bn and Pakistan is now caught in a Chinese debt trap. Gwadar which is a organic deep sea water project has hardly any merchant ships coming there. The project is getting used to harbour PLA Navy submarines and ships, so there is minimal earnings.
Imports which includes meals products are touching $ 45bn, whereas exports from Pakistan are only $22bn which is crippling its foreign exchange reserves which at $13bn is its highest in 3 years. The population is developing, resulting in lack of jobs for the youth. Pakistan is also a water scarce nation as water availability per particular person is much less than 1000 cu meters per particular person and steadily declining due climate modify and lack of investments in water storage capacity.
Bangladesh on the other hand has a GDP of $318bn versus Pakistan of $284bn and its forex reserves are $45bn. Pakistan and Bangladesh are each Islamic nations with one swiftly developing with a vibrant democracy with its government’s focussings on its people today and financial improvement though the other is swiftly declining. The truth that Bangladesh’s improvement indicators are far better than Pakistan’s is no little feat, provided that pre-1971 East Pakistan trailed West Pakistan across the board.
The Pakistan Army is deployed in Baluchistan, FATA, and tribal regions. The Baluchistan Liberation Army is attacking Pakistani Army and Chinese contractors with impunity. The international perception of Pakistan as a nation as the epicenter of international terrorism that supports jihadis/Islamist radical groups remains, and this hampers efforts to acquire financial help for development of the economy. They have been on the UN FATF grey list for 3 years now, and that has deep financial ramifications. While Pakistan has not been placed on the FATF blacklist, there is enough proof to preserve it on the grey list. As the institution that in impact has dictated Pakistan’s foreign and domestic politics, the Army feels there is also considerably stress on the nation and that there is a need to have to alleviate that stress.
The predicament in Afghanistan is messy to say the least. The Taliban is not meeting its commitments to renounce terrorism and cease violent attacks. This can outcome in either a delay in the withdrawal of US troops or a pullout of the accord which could lead to a renewed civil war which will be detrimental to the stability of the area.
Pakistan is conscious of the standard energy differential amongst the two nations. It has an army which has never ever won a standard conflict. Therefore Pakistan has focused on strategic nuclear weapons, which it can not use and non-state actors at the other finish of the spectrum, which have harmed its image in the eyes of the globe and failed to accomplish their ambitions either in Kashmir or Afghanistan. Furthermore, the monsters they produced are now haunting them.
Kashmir is witnessing relative peace, the very best atmosphere in numerous decades which resulted in the productive conduct of the District Development Elections in finish 2020. The population has reaped the advantages in spite of the restrictions imposed by the pandemic. The Indian Army has also retaliated to the Cease Fire Violations by powerful and instant punishment additional Balakot demonstrated that India was prepared to scale up the escalatory ladder. Pakistan is clearly overstretched not only along its Eastern Flank with India, but also in the West along its borders with Afghanistan and Iran. In addition to the internal safety duties battling numerous insurgencies and terrorist organisations, they are also accountable for safeguarding Chinese interests and assets along the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
India on the other hand even even though faced with an extended front of each Pakistan and China and resultant defence expenditures is a study in contrast. Its leadership, economy and military are sturdy and accountable. During the pandemic it has shouldered its responsibilities and stood up to the twin challenges of the overall health and financial devastation of the pandemic and the aggression on its Northern borders. It has offered vaccines to a quantity of nations and has shown its resolve though standing up to the Chinese aggression and expansionism by the professionalism of its forces and synergy amongst political, diplomatic and military pillars.
The initial public indication of the changed stance was General Bajwa’s address to the graduates at the PAF on 02 February, exactly where he stated “We stand firmly committed to the idea of mutual respect and peaceful co-existence. It is time to extend the hand of peace in all directions. Pakistan and India must also resolve the longstanding issue of Jammu and Kashmir in a dignified and peaceful manner”.
To anticipate no mention of Kashmir in a peace bid by Pakistan would be unrealistic but it appears it is really serious following a extended time. Kashmir remains the most important obsession of its leaders and consequently its people today, and remains one problem on which most Pakistanis agree. However, Indian policies do not have to be dictated by Pakistani domestic compulsions. Our interests should guide our responses.
Admiral Arun Prakash had not too long ago stated” we need to have to be pragmatic that neither conquest nor re-conquest of territory is probable in the 21st Century”. The majority of these on the other side have never ever been element of India as these born following independence are Pakistani by birth. Territory apart, what do you do with the millions of people today on the other side. The experiences of conflicts in Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria have clearly revealed that integration of the population post conflict is an really difficult activity. We need to have to look at peace, stability and extended term financial improvement, which is our priority.
Pakistan sees a highly effective and sturdy India to its east whom the Army will continue to view as an existential threat, a volatile Afghanistan and a complicated Iran to the west, dominating China to its north. US is no longer observed as an ally and conversely it is cooperating with India and the embrace is acquiring tighter in the Quad. The selection appears binary either make peace or continue fighting India and come to be a military protectorate and financial colony of China.
Pakistan is in a tight spot and is consequently altering track to pursue peace with India which it requirements. Dialogues and negotiations falter when either of the participants is also rigid or unwilling. India requirements to move cautiously, but move it should. Peaceful and friendly co-existence is a realistic finish state. Parliament resolutions notwithstanding. When agreements are produced, maps modify, it has occurred not too long ago with Bangladesh with positive outcomes. We can distrust Pakistan and assure we are not taken for a ride, but engage we should. It’s far better to be in dialogue with adversaries, when specific circumstances are met.
One of the initial circumstances of course would stay a stated policy that terror and talks can not go collectively. Pakistan requirements to cease cross border terrorism. The activities of the deep state, the ISI need to have to be curtailed and the veil of plausible deniability be lifted by it each in India and Afghanistan. Rhetoric by Pakistan requirements to be translated to action on ground. There will be a series of actions that will need to have to be initiated prior to taking the actions forward and this would be the exchange of High Commissioners. However, his remarks cleverly threw the duty into the Indian court to generate a conducive atmosphere whereas they need to have to remove cross border terrorism as a prelude to peace.
There requirements to be a frame work that has to be worked out to take this method forward and go over the core difficulties at the heart of the difficulty. There is no doubt that basic variations hardened more than time exist and hard choices need to have to be taken but initial we need to have to establish some degree of trust with each and every other.
While Pakistan will endeavour to maximize positive aspects and optimise their gains, India requirements to be balanced. Peace in the neighborhood is quite critical for improvement, prosperity and poverty alleviation. However, we should guard our national interests though we move forward though developing that peace. Talking even with adversary can have dividends. Rigidity will get neither side anyplace rationality requirements to prevail. We have to give it a attempt following taking due precautions remembering our lessons from the Simla Agreement and Lahore and Agra Summits. For anyone to forecast the future fraught with uncertainty is hard. It’s a query of how each can steer the course, relative peace is far better than No War No Peace for each nations.
(The author is an Indian Army Veteran. Email:[email protected] Views expressed are individual and do not reflect the official position or policy of TheSpuzz Online.)